What do you think of the macroeconomic situation? What do you think of the situation of the machine tool industry? How do you think about the situation of your own business development prospects? Everyone has their own opinions. This should be called "the benevolent sees benevolence, the wise sees wisdom".
Severe situation
When analyzing the industry situation, we must have an understanding of the big environment. How to evaluate the current economic situation in China is now a lot of different opinions. I agree that "2008 is a year in which China's economy has been upgraded and upgraded." In this change, there are both the impact of the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis on the world economy, and the impact of changes in the domestic economic structure and development model. The current domestic economic situation is the result of the combined effects of internal and external factors.
There is a set of data, saying that the domestic GDP growth in 2008, 10.6% in the first quarter, 10.4% in the first half, fell below double-digits for the first time in the third quarter, 9.9%. What will happen in the fourth quarter? For this reason, I checked the macroeconomic data of November 2008. The growth rate of China’s industrial economy was 5.4%, which was 12% worse than the 17% in the same period of 2007, which was 81 months. The new low, the entire industrial economy is indeed in a relatively serious situation.
The machine tool industry has a growth rate of around 30% by the end of the third quarter of 2008. However, from the perspective of enterprises in the entire industry, it is not optimistic to maintain a 30% overall increase. why? According to the statistics of the Marketing Department of the Machine Tool Association, there are probably two large proportions of the total output value of the machine tool industry in China, and the output of the product variety. One piece is that the general machine tool has dropped to 30% compared with the historical average, that is, 70% of the market. It has shrunk; the other is the low-end CNC machine tool, including the economical CNC machine tool, which shrinks about 50%. From the matching situation, the order quantity has dropped by 60% regardless of the total matching rate of the numerical control system or functional components.
In fact, what everyone is most worried about is the economic bottoming and the industry when it is just mentioned. I personally think that in the current situation, it is of little significance to explore this issue. When analyzing the situation, I think it is necessary to analyze what I can do. To analyze clearly, we must look at the issue from a historical perspective and a dialectical perspective.
Industry improvement since reform and opening up
First, let's look at the changes that have taken place in the entire machine tool industry since the reform and opening up.
First, the machine tool industry was originally a state-owned enterprise under the planned economic system. After the planned economy enters the market economy, state-owned enterprises must face the crisis of market changes. I think it is better to think about how to do it when the crisis arises. As a leader and operator of a company, it is important to have a longer strategic vision and to have greater wisdom in strategic arrangements.
Since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, the machine tool industry has undergone such a big change. From Hanghang, we have a deep understanding of the market economy.
Second, since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, the machine tool industry has gradually developed from low-end products to high-end products, and is also developing to the high end of the industrial chain. From the perspective of the current industry, whose product structure is adjusted early, and whose product structure is well adjusted, the life is relatively better. In addition, there is also a saying in the industry. It is good to evaluate a company now. If it is a good company for 7 days a week, it is a normal business to do 5 days a week. It can only be done for 3 to 4 days a week. That is definitely a problematic business, which is an evaluation indicator. The second indicator is that a company can now consider the next step of its own business with a long-term strategic vision in the case of cash as the king. This company is definitely a good company; If you can give it a winter, this company is a good company; and if the cash in this company does not even have the money to buy a cotton jacket, then this enterprise is the enterprise that is going to die. In general, this standard can basically determine whether the business is good or not.
Third, reform and opening up have made China's machinery industry's position in the world, including the machine tool industry, greatly improved its position in the world. Similarly, Hangji Group and Hangji shares have also greatly improved their position in the industry. The ranking of the machine tool industry in the world has increased from 12th in 1978 to 3rd in 2007. Therefore, in the 30 years of reform and opening up, it should be said that the status of the machine tool industry has been greatly improved, which also shows that the machine tool industry has played an important role in supporting the development of China's national economy.
Through the combing of these data, we can find a law. The growth rate of national economic GDP, the growth rate of fixed asset investment scale, and the growth rate of industrial added value all have a close proportion with the development of machine tool industry. I roughly calculated that the machine tool tool is basically close to the growth rate of urban and rural fixed asset investment. In the third quarter of 2008, the growth of the machine tool industry was about 30%, while the growth of urban and rural fixed asset investment was 24 points. If under normal circumstances, the machine tool is 2 to 2.5 times the GDP growth, the industrial added value is about 1.8 times, that is, the industrial added value is doubled, and the machine tool is increased by 2 times. Why do you want to say this concept? This is a judgment on the growth potential of the entire macro-situ situation in 2009.
Fourth, over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, many new elements have been injected into the development of the machine tool industry. Especially after foreign technology, foreign management, and foreign capital have entered, it has greatly promoted the machine tool industry in China. Similarly, the introduction of competition has also intensified the competitive environment. I believe that the competitive environment of foreign-funded enterprises, Chinese-foreign cooperative enterprises, including restructuring enterprises and state-owned enterprises, is beneficial to promoting a virtuous cycle of the entire machine tool industry. Up to now, many private companies have joined this competitive field.
Through the above, especially the introduction of market competition mechanism, it can be clearly seen that the overall level of the machine tool industry has increased. Especially in the past three years, the export of machine tools in China has undergone earth-shaking changes, which is a strong evidence of the industry's promotion.
Where is the opportunity?
The Central Economic Work Conference has basically finalized the 2009 major policy, and many policies will be introduced. The work meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to do a good job in nine tasks, two of which have a lot to do with the machine tool industry.
First, in the current industrial economic structure, technological transformation should be placed in the prominent position of industrial development to promote industrial intensional growth. Then, we have to care about which companies are going to make technological transformations. I think that first of all, it is a large group and a large enterprise with a national scale. Once the economy is bottomed out, it must be restored to a large state-owned group and a large enterprise. And their equipment is required to specialize in new and refined. To be special and new, we must first solve the process and equipment capabilities. This requires them to carry out technological transformation, so we must have the investment in equipment, we can see unlimited opportunities. In addition, a series of industrial policies to be introduced by the country will bring good news to the machine tool industry. Of course, this also puts forward requirements. First, can we propose a comprehensive solution to meet the needs of users; second, how the product structure is adjusted.
Second, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also identified steel, automobile, marine, petrochemical, light industry, textile, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, and electronic information as the key revitalization industries. It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has begun to speed up the planning of the above nine industries, and proposed nine key science and technology projects to be specially grasped. Among the nine special items, there are two related to the machine tool industry: the first special item is the nuclear high base, which is the abbreviation of core electronic components, high-end general-purpose chips, and basic software products. The second specialization is ultra-large scale integrated circuit (LSI) manufacturing equipment and complete processes. Now the main leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have taken the initiative to find the Machine Tool Association, which requires analysis of these equipment and complete sets of processes. What is the process, that is, technology and services. Therefore, companies must learn to walk on two legs, not just selling products. This is not just a piece of equipment, it is a concept of engineering. For example, the construction cost of dozens of grinding machines for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway track plate is only 200 million yuan, but the software service fee is 400 million yuan, which shows how important high technology is. I think that from now on, we really need to develop for these things.
(The author is General Manager of Hangzhou Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou Hangji Co., Ltd.)
Severe situation
When analyzing the industry situation, we must have an understanding of the big environment. How to evaluate the current economic situation in China is now a lot of different opinions. I agree that "2008 is a year in which China's economy has been upgraded and upgraded." In this change, there are both the impact of the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis on the world economy, and the impact of changes in the domestic economic structure and development model. The current domestic economic situation is the result of the combined effects of internal and external factors.
There is a set of data, saying that the domestic GDP growth in 2008, 10.6% in the first quarter, 10.4% in the first half, fell below double-digits for the first time in the third quarter, 9.9%. What will happen in the fourth quarter? For this reason, I checked the macroeconomic data of November 2008. The growth rate of China’s industrial economy was 5.4%, which was 12% worse than the 17% in the same period of 2007, which was 81 months. The new low, the entire industrial economy is indeed in a relatively serious situation.
The machine tool industry has a growth rate of around 30% by the end of the third quarter of 2008. However, from the perspective of enterprises in the entire industry, it is not optimistic to maintain a 30% overall increase. why? According to the statistics of the Marketing Department of the Machine Tool Association, there are probably two large proportions of the total output value of the machine tool industry in China, and the output of the product variety. One piece is that the general machine tool has dropped to 30% compared with the historical average, that is, 70% of the market. It has shrunk; the other is the low-end CNC machine tool, including the economical CNC machine tool, which shrinks about 50%. From the matching situation, the order quantity has dropped by 60% regardless of the total matching rate of the numerical control system or functional components.
In fact, what everyone is most worried about is the economic bottoming and the industry when it is just mentioned. I personally think that in the current situation, it is of little significance to explore this issue. When analyzing the situation, I think it is necessary to analyze what I can do. To analyze clearly, we must look at the issue from a historical perspective and a dialectical perspective.
Industry improvement since reform and opening up
First, let's look at the changes that have taken place in the entire machine tool industry since the reform and opening up.
First, the machine tool industry was originally a state-owned enterprise under the planned economic system. After the planned economy enters the market economy, state-owned enterprises must face the crisis of market changes. I think it is better to think about how to do it when the crisis arises. As a leader and operator of a company, it is important to have a longer strategic vision and to have greater wisdom in strategic arrangements.
Since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, the machine tool industry has undergone such a big change. From Hanghang, we have a deep understanding of the market economy.
Second, since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, the machine tool industry has gradually developed from low-end products to high-end products, and is also developing to the high end of the industrial chain. From the perspective of the current industry, whose product structure is adjusted early, and whose product structure is well adjusted, the life is relatively better. In addition, there is also a saying in the industry. It is good to evaluate a company now. If it is a good company for 7 days a week, it is a normal business to do 5 days a week. It can only be done for 3 to 4 days a week. That is definitely a problematic business, which is an evaluation indicator. The second indicator is that a company can now consider the next step of its own business with a long-term strategic vision in the case of cash as the king. This company is definitely a good company; If you can give it a winter, this company is a good company; and if the cash in this company does not even have the money to buy a cotton jacket, then this enterprise is the enterprise that is going to die. In general, this standard can basically determine whether the business is good or not.
Third, reform and opening up have made China's machinery industry's position in the world, including the machine tool industry, greatly improved its position in the world. Similarly, Hangji Group and Hangji shares have also greatly improved their position in the industry. The ranking of the machine tool industry in the world has increased from 12th in 1978 to 3rd in 2007. Therefore, in the 30 years of reform and opening up, it should be said that the status of the machine tool industry has been greatly improved, which also shows that the machine tool industry has played an important role in supporting the development of China's national economy.
Through the combing of these data, we can find a law. The growth rate of national economic GDP, the growth rate of fixed asset investment scale, and the growth rate of industrial added value all have a close proportion with the development of machine tool industry. I roughly calculated that the machine tool tool is basically close to the growth rate of urban and rural fixed asset investment. In the third quarter of 2008, the growth of the machine tool industry was about 30%, while the growth of urban and rural fixed asset investment was 24 points. If under normal circumstances, the machine tool is 2 to 2.5 times the GDP growth, the industrial added value is about 1.8 times, that is, the industrial added value is doubled, and the machine tool is increased by 2 times. Why do you want to say this concept? This is a judgment on the growth potential of the entire macro-situ situation in 2009.
Fourth, over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, many new elements have been injected into the development of the machine tool industry. Especially after foreign technology, foreign management, and foreign capital have entered, it has greatly promoted the machine tool industry in China. Similarly, the introduction of competition has also intensified the competitive environment. I believe that the competitive environment of foreign-funded enterprises, Chinese-foreign cooperative enterprises, including restructuring enterprises and state-owned enterprises, is beneficial to promoting a virtuous cycle of the entire machine tool industry. Up to now, many private companies have joined this competitive field.
Through the above, especially the introduction of market competition mechanism, it can be clearly seen that the overall level of the machine tool industry has increased. Especially in the past three years, the export of machine tools in China has undergone earth-shaking changes, which is a strong evidence of the industry's promotion.
Where is the opportunity?
The Central Economic Work Conference has basically finalized the 2009 major policy, and many policies will be introduced. The work meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to do a good job in nine tasks, two of which have a lot to do with the machine tool industry.
First, in the current industrial economic structure, technological transformation should be placed in the prominent position of industrial development to promote industrial intensional growth. Then, we have to care about which companies are going to make technological transformations. I think that first of all, it is a large group and a large enterprise with a national scale. Once the economy is bottomed out, it must be restored to a large state-owned group and a large enterprise. And their equipment is required to specialize in new and refined. To be special and new, we must first solve the process and equipment capabilities. This requires them to carry out technological transformation, so we must have the investment in equipment, we can see unlimited opportunities. In addition, a series of industrial policies to be introduced by the country will bring good news to the machine tool industry. Of course, this also puts forward requirements. First, can we propose a comprehensive solution to meet the needs of users; second, how the product structure is adjusted.
Second, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also identified steel, automobile, marine, petrochemical, light industry, textile, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, and electronic information as the key revitalization industries. It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has begun to speed up the planning of the above nine industries, and proposed nine key science and technology projects to be specially grasped. Among the nine special items, there are two related to the machine tool industry: the first special item is the nuclear high base, which is the abbreviation of core electronic components, high-end general-purpose chips, and basic software products. The second specialization is ultra-large scale integrated circuit (LSI) manufacturing equipment and complete processes. Now the main leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have taken the initiative to find the Machine Tool Association, which requires analysis of these equipment and complete sets of processes. What is the process, that is, technology and services. Therefore, companies must learn to walk on two legs, not just selling products. This is not just a piece of equipment, it is a concept of engineering. For example, the construction cost of dozens of grinding machines for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway track plate is only 200 million yuan, but the software service fee is 400 million yuan, which shows how important high technology is. I think that from now on, we really need to develop for these things.
(The author is General Manager of Hangzhou Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou Hangji Co., Ltd.)
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