According to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI (Total Consumer Price Level) rose by 6.2% year-on-year in August, slowing down from the 6.5% increase in the previous month. It is also the first time that CPI growth has been rising for three consecutive months. There is a fall. The data shows that the upward pressure on prices has eased, but inflation is still high. The analysis predicts that the monetary policy will maintain a tight pattern during the year, but there is disagreement among all parties on whether to raise interest rates during the year.
August is the strongest month for CPI declines this year. According to previous media reports, almost no agency has predicted more than 6.5% in July. The CPI's gains have narrowed and there is data to support. According to the 21st Century Business Report, people from a local survey team in the statistical system confirmed that the province's CPI growth in August was down from last month, driven by the year-on-year decline in pork prices. . As for the changes in local prices in August, some cities and counties have announced that the local CPI growth in August has declined to varying degrees.
CPI may gradually decline
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, believes that according to the current situation, although the CPI continues to remain high, the pressure of rapid price increases has eased. In addition, the international commodity price correction has also eased the pressure of China's imported inflation, coupled with the domestically effective monetary policy, he expects the CPI turning point to be formed in the third quarter of this year.
Similar views include CICC, and its previously released report also predicts that CPI will remain above 6% in the third quarter, and is expected to drop significantly below 5% in the fourth quarter. In the past few months, economic growth has shown a slowdown. After a record high, inflation has a higher probability of peaking in July and will gradually decline in the future.
Monetary policy remains tight, and whether interest rate hikes are controversial
The domestic CPI is still high, and emerging countries have begun to implement loose monetary policies one after another. Whether China's monetary policy will be adjusted this year has become the focus of attention from all walks of life.
In this regard, Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, believes that the impact of US debt European debt continues and domestic inflation remains high. China should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, especially monetary policy, which needs to be observed for some time. , neither step on the brakes nor step on the gas pedal. The opinion of Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, is that the overall monetary policy will not be relaxed. Specifically, due to the inflection point of CPI year-on-year, it is unlikely to raise interest rates during the year; due to tight liquidity, the statutory deposit reserve ratio may be No longer use.
However, in terms of the choice of interest rate hikes, the agency has different views. Hu Yifan, chief economist of Haitong Securities International, believes that as long as the CPI increase remains above 6%, it indicates that inflationary pressures are still high and the central bank needs to raise interest rates. . CICC’s report also stated that monetary policy will remain tight in the coming months. There is still a possibility of raising interest rates during the year, the most likely time is September or October.
Attachment: Changes in consumer prices in August
In August 2011, the national consumer price level rose by 6.2% year-on-year. Among them, the city rose 5.9%, the rural rose 6.7%; food prices rose 13.4%, non-food prices rose 3.0%; consumer prices rose 7.3%, service items rose 3.4%. The national consumer price level rose by 0.3% from the previous month. Among them, the city rose 0.3%, the rural rose 0.3%; food prices rose 0.6%, non-food prices rose 0.2%; consumer prices rose 0.3%, service items rose 0.2%.
I. Year-on-year changes in the prices of various commodities
The price of foodstuffs rose by 13.4% year-on-year, affecting the overall price level by about 4.02 percentage points. Among them, the price of food rose by 12.2%, affecting the overall price level by about 0.33 percentage points; the price of meat and poultry and its products rose by 29.3%, affecting the total price level by about 1.89 percentage points (the price of pork rose by 45.5%, affecting the total price level by about 1.27). The percentage of eggs increased by 16.3%, affecting the overall price level by about 0.14 percentage points; the price of aquatic products rose by 14.7%, affecting the overall price level by about 0.33 percentage points; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 0.1%; the price of fresh fruits rose by 4.0%. The total price level was affected by about 0.07 percentage points; the price of oil and fat rose by 17.1%, affecting the total price level by about 0.19 percentage points.
The price of tobacco and alcohol increased by 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, tobacco prices rose by 0.3%, and alcohol prices rose by 6.8%.
Clothing prices rose 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, the price of clothing rose by 3.2%, and the price of shoes rose by 1.1%.
The price of household equipment and maintenance services rose by 2.8% year-on-year. Among them, the price of durable consumer goods rose by 0.7%, and the price of household services and processing and repair services rose by 11.6%.
The price of health care and personal care products rose by 4.1% year-on-year. Among them, the price of western medicine dropped by 0.4%, the price of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines rose by 14.2%, and the price of medical care services rose by 0.5%.
Traffic and communications prices rose by 1.0% year-on-year. Among them, the price of vehicles decreased by 0.7%, the price of fuel for vehicles and spare parts rose by 14.9%, the price of vehicle use and maintenance rose by 4.5%, the price of transportation fees between cities increased by 3.1%, and the price of urban public transportation increased by 2.6%. The price dropped by 13.0%.
The prices of entertainment, education, cultural goods and services rose by 0.4% year-on-year. Among them, the price of education rose by 1.6%, the price of entertainment fees rose by 1.6%, the price of tourism rose by 2.9%, and the price of consumer durables and services for entertainment decreased by 6.7%.
The price of housing increased by 5.5% year-on-year. Among them, the price of water, electricity and fuel rose by 4.4%, the price of building and decoration materials rose by 5.5%, and the price of housing rent rose by 3.8%.
According to estimates, in the 6.2% increase in August, the hikes of price increases last year were about 2.7 percentage points, and the new price increase factor this year was about 3.5 percentage points.
Second, the price changes of various types of goods
In August, food prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, affecting the overall price level by about 0.19 percentage points. Among them, the price of meat and poultry and its products increased by 1.5%, which was 3.2 percentage points lower than that of July (pork price increased by 1.3% from the previous month, which was 6.4 percentage points lower than the increase in July); the price of eggs increased by 4.4%. In July, the month-on-month increase was 3.6 percentage points; the price of oil and fat rose by 2.1%, which was 1.7 percentage points higher than the increase in July. The total of the above three factors affected the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.18 percentage points. The prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products decreased by 0.2%, 4.1% and 0.7% respectively, which affected the total consumer price level by about 0.09 percentage points.
In August, the non-food price rose by 0.2%, affecting the total consumer price level by about 0.12 percentage points. Among them, the prices of tobacco and alcohol, household equipment and maintenance services, medical care and personal products, entertainment, education, cultural goods and services, and residences rose by 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.6%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, respectively. The chain fell by 0.1%, and the price of transportation and communications was flat.
Attachment: Changes in PPI in August (up 7.3% year-on-year)
In August 2011, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.1% from the previous month and by 7.3% from the same month last year. The purchase price of industrial producers rose by 0.2% from the previous month and by 10.6% from the same month last year. From January to August 2011, the average ex-factory price of industrial producers rose by 7.1% year-on-year, and the average purchase price of industrial producers rose by 10.4% year-on-year.
The ex-factory price of production materials rose by 0.1% from the previous month. Among them, the price of mining industry rose by 0.8%, the price of raw material industry rose by 0.2%, and the price of processing industry fell by 0.1%. The ex-factory price of living materials rose by 0.3% month-on-month, among which, food prices rose by 0.4%, clothing prices rose by 0.3%, general commodity prices rose by 0.3%, and durable consumer goods prices remained flat.
The ex-factory price of production materials rose by 8.0% over the same month of last year. Among them, the price of mining industry rose by 18.8%, the price of raw material industry rose by 11.6%, and the price of processing industry rose by 5.4%. The ex-factory price of living materials rose by 4.8% year-on-year, among which, food prices rose by 8.3%, clothing prices rose by 4.6%, general commodity prices rose by 4.7%, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 0.3%.
Among the industrial producers' purchase price, the price of non-ferrous metal materials was unchanged from the previous month, the price of fuel power increased by 0.1%, the price of ferrous materials rose by 0.4%, and the price of chemical raw materials rose by 0.3%.
Among the year-on-year prices of industrial producers, the price of non-ferrous metal materials rose by 16.8%, the price of fuel-powered products rose by 12.7%, the price of ferrous materials rose by 9.9%, and the price of chemical raw materials rose by 13.4%.
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