Recently, a news that “new energy vehicles are weaned†has become the focus of the automotive industry. On March 26, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the “Subsidy Noticeâ€). A simultaneous interpretation of the policy on subsidy adjustments was released. At this point, the 2019 new energy vehicle financial subsidy policy that has made all car people wait for a long time has finally revealed its true body.
After carefully reading the contents of the "Subsidy Notice", the reporter found that there were two major changes in the subsidy policy in 2019. First, the direct subsidy is reduced. The subsidy standard for pure electric passenger cars is at least 50% lower than that in 2018. Second, the requirements for the mileage and energy consumption of new energy vehicles are raised, so that new energy vehicles are subsidized. The technical threshold is raised again.
In recent years, under the situation that the overall growth of the automobile market is weak, new energy vehicles have shown excellent performances of sustained contrarian growth under the guidance of policies and enterprise support. Now, what impact will the halving of subsidies have on new energy vehicles? Where will the new energy vehicles after “weaning†go? The reporter recently interviewed a number of experts and scholars in the industry to explore the development path of new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era.
Increased standards, subsidies to reduce product terminal price increase is not a smart choice
Over the years, the growth rate and the number of new energy vehicles in China have been among the highest in the world. Behind the rapid growth of prosperity, issues such as “not high level of technology†and “blind pursuit of speed†have become factors that constrain the sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry.
In response to the above problems, the "Subsidy Notice" clearly proposed a solution. On the one hand, the "Subsidy Notice" pointed out that in accordance with the principles of advanced technology, reliable quality, and safety, the threshold of technical indicators should be appropriately raised, the upper limit of technical indicators should be basically unchanged, and key products with high technical level should be supported.
On the other hand, the “Subsidy Notice†recommends that companies be encouraged to focus on safety and consistency. At the same time, the "Subsidy Notice" does not adjust the upper limit of technical indicators to prevent enterprises from blindly pursuing high indicators and neglecting safety, appropriately raising the threshold of technical indicators, and promoting technological acceleration and progress.
“Taking the new energy passenger car as an example, the new energy vehicle promotion subsidy program and product technical requirements, although the minimum subsidy requirements for driving range (up to 250 km) and energy density ratio (up to 125 wh/kg) The upgrade, but did not raise the upper limit requirements, the continued driving is still ≥ 400 km, the energy density ratio requirement is still ≥ 160Wh / kg." Automotive industry analyst Cao He believes that the subsidy standard does not change the upper limit requirements, but the lower limit The requirements have been improved, tailored to the current development of new energy vehicles in China.
“If the upper and lower standards are raised at the same time, it will have a greater impact on the products of new energy vehicles. Only by raising the lower limit requirements, manufacturers can be encouraged to carry out technical research and development and actively improve product quality.â€
At the same time as the subsidy standard has increased, the amount of subsidies announced this time has dropped significantly. According to the calculation of the Data Resource Center of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., compared with 2018, the upper limit of the unit battery subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles is reduced from 1200 yuan/kWh to 550 yuan/kWh; the bicycle subsidy amount is lower than last year. 50%. The subsidy for the plug-in hybrid vehicle was reduced to 10,000 yuan per vehicle, a drop of 54.5%.
Obviously, the subsidies have been greatly reduced to promote the survival of the fittest. However, in order to prevent the ups and downs of the market, the new subsidy policy has set a special transition period.
The "Notice of Subsidies" will be implemented from March 26, and will be designated as a transition period from March 26 to June 25. During the transition period, sales of vehicles that meet the requirements of 2018 technical indicators but do not meet the technical requirements of 2019 may be subsidized by 0.1, 0.6 and 0.8 times of the corresponding standards according to the corresponding documents.
"The design route for upgrading the new energy vehicle standard in 2019 is very pragmatic. It is only a four-month transition period from 2018. This time it is changed to a three-month transition period of last year's subsidy period and three months." National passenger car Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Market Information Association, commented that this move can effectively prevent the market from being affected by the ups and downs of the policy.
Since the transition period, the subsidy is bound to be greatly reduced. Many people are worried that the price of new energy vehicle terminals will rise in the second half of this year.
In this regard, Cao He said that the terminal price of new energy vehicles will not be greatly affected. “If the existing models increase their prices, consumers will probably not recognize them and will not buy them. Unless the new models that are subsequently launched have improved in terms of configuration, product strength and brand power, they can consider setting a high price.â€
Say goodbye to "breastfeeding" New energy vehicle market accelerates the survival of the fittest
The “new energy†policy of “seeing policy to eat†will soon be unable to play. After the era of subsidy is coming, the market will become the main choice factor for new energy for the first time.†When talking about the future development trend of new energy vehicles, Cao He told reporters that the retreat of financial subsidies will force auto companies to become self-reliant.
He said: "After the new energy subsidies have subsided or even canceled, the market competition test is a comprehensive supply chain system capability, product development capability and market operation capability. Only efforts to improve the technical level, improve product market competitiveness, and improve supply Chain system and cost reduction are the compulsory courses for the survival of new energy companies in the future."
Cao He said that the “first big wave of sand washing†in the new energy automobile industry has already begun. “Subsidies will fall back. After the market enters the knockout stage, domestic car enterprises will undoubtedly face a more cruel testâ€.
In fact, many joint venture brands and foreign brands have long been eyeing this market cake.
It is understood that the Tesla China Super Factory is expected to be completed by the end of this year, with a total capacity of 500,000 vehicles per year. Some analysts believe that the domestically produced model 3 with guaranteed production capacity will reshuffle the market. In addition, Toyota, GM, Volkswagen and other multinational companies have stated that they will expand the new energy vehicle product camp in China in 2020.
How to deal with internal and external changes and pressures will become a difficult problem for independent brands to think about and solve in the new energy vehicle market.
Cui Dongshu believes that although the subsidy will bring back pain, "seeing policy eating" is not a long-term solution. In the long run, the reduction or even withdrawal of state subsidies will form a “squid effectâ€, which is conducive to the healthy development of China's new energy automobile industry.
According to his analysis, the subsidy policy will continue to reduce subsidies rationally, and the rules for subsidizing funds in a timely manner will help enterprises to carry out product promotion, marketing and fund matching as planned. At the same time, he stressed that in the case that the subsidy policy continues to retreat, the supporting policies for charging vehicles for new energy vehicles should be improved, and the support policies for consumer use should also be accelerated.
"Based on the sales of new energy vehicles of 1.2 million vehicles in 2018, I originally predicted that the sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.6 million in 2019. Now with the arrival of the "Subsidy Notice", it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will increase to 2019. 1.7 million units." Cui Dongshu said that improving subsidy standards and releasing pressure in stages will not only prevent the market from rising and falling, but also help the industry to survive the fittest. “After all, sustainable development is the better way.â€
Ningbo Wason Lighting Technology Co.,Ltd , https://www.nbwasonled.com