After a period of accumulation, the tightening effect of monetary policy has fully emerged. According to statistics released by the central bank yesterday, the growth rate of broad money (M2) in July hit a new low since May 2005, and the growth rate of narrow money (M1) also hit a new low since February 2009. According to central bank data, at the end of July, the balance of M2 was 77.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, which was 1.2 and 2.9 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period of last year. The balance of M1 was 27.06 trillion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, it was 1.5 and 11.3 percentage points lower; the balance of circulating currency (M0) was 4.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The net cash for the month was 70.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7 billion yuan. For the rapid decline of the growth rate of money, Bank of Communications Financial Research Center E Yongjian said that the growth rate of M2 hit a new low of 6 years, indicating that the effect of the previous tightening policy is accelerating, and the current liquidity is obviously tight; the growth rate of M1 is slower than that. The big deal is related to the decline in deposits at the beginning of the season and is also related to the downturn in the stock market. According to data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 492.6 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.2 billion yuan. In July, the growth rate of RMB loans was 16.6%, which was slower than the 16.9% in June. It also continued the trend of slowing loan growth since March. This data is in line with previous expectations. In July, RMB deposits decreased by 668.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 816.6 billion yuan. At the end of July, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits was 79.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. The balance of RMB deposits was 77.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, which was 1.3 and 2.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period of last year. E Yongjian believes that the bank credit capacity will continue to be limited during the year, while credit demand may partially slow down. However, given the slowdown in economic growth and the greater uncertainty in the external economy, credit lending may be directed to “three ruralâ€, small and medium-sized enterprises, and affordable housing in the context of the overall credit crunch. Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that if inflationary pressures are more obvious in the next few months, the monetary policy in the same period may adopt a “directed easing†approach, that is, “three ruralâ€, small and medium enterprises, and affordable housing. Other areas give the financing policy a tilt. The tightening of macroeconomic regulation will be weakened and the rhythm will moderately slow down. But unless there is a sharp economic downturn or a significant decline in the consumer price index (CPI), monetary policy will not be significantly relaxed. In the use of specific monetary policy tools, E Yongjian expects that open market operations will be the main policy tool in the next stage, and the recovery will be further weakened to maintain relatively abundant liquidity; at the same time, credit will be relaxed in specific areas. The possibility is also greater. Recently, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has accelerated, and exchange rate flexibility will increase. Relatively speaking, unless there is further negative information, the reserve ratio and interest rate will not be easily used. Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura Securities China, pointed out that China's money market interest rate has now fallen to its lowest point since June 2010, suggesting that the currency situation may have been relaxed. It is expected that the authorities will keep interest rates and deposit reserve ratio unchanged for the rest of the year. However, if the situation abroad deteriorates, the first policy action that I believe will be to cut the deposit reserve ratio.
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