Several well-known economists wrote in the New York Times on the 1st that the US economic recession that has lasted for 15 months is likely to continue into 2010 or even later.
"I think it's easy to imagine that the economic contraction will continue for another two years," Harvard financial historian Neil Ferguson said. "At the same time, the possibility of a bleak economy after two years is not ruled out."
Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, predicts that the US economy will not start expanding again until late 2010 or early 2011.
George Cooper, author of "The Roots of the Financial Crisis: The Central Bank, the Credit Bubble, and the Effective Market Paradox," said the technical recession will end by the end of the year, but the broader credit cycle drag on the economy may continue beyond 2010.
New York University professor Nuril Roubini predicts that the recession will last a total of 36 months. He wrote that the economic trend may not follow the "U" shape, "and is more likely to appear in the 'L' shape of the depression."
In contrast, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder and former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole, are more optimistic, predicting that the US economy will turn around at the end of this year.
But economists also predict that even if the economy rebounds, the intensity will be weak.
"I think it's easy to imagine that the economic contraction will continue for another two years," Harvard financial historian Neil Ferguson said. "At the same time, the possibility of a bleak economy after two years is not ruled out."
Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, predicts that the US economy will not start expanding again until late 2010 or early 2011.
George Cooper, author of "The Roots of the Financial Crisis: The Central Bank, the Credit Bubble, and the Effective Market Paradox," said the technical recession will end by the end of the year, but the broader credit cycle drag on the economy may continue beyond 2010.
New York University professor Nuril Roubini predicts that the recession will last a total of 36 months. He wrote that the economic trend may not follow the "U" shape, "and is more likely to appear in the 'L' shape of the depression."
In contrast, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder and former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole, are more optimistic, predicting that the US economy will turn around at the end of this year.
But economists also predict that even if the economy rebounds, the intensity will be weak.
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