2011 is the first year of China’s “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. Economic construction will continue to advance steadily. Many projects will also begin to break ground in 2011. No matter power, steel, cement and building materials, fertilizers, etc., will maintain a good momentum of development. The promotion of steady growth in coal demand is good news for the coal industry and will drive the healthy and orderly development of the coal industry.
The price of coal is mainly affected by the supply and demand relationship in the coal market. From the demand point of view, the electric power industry, the latest report released by the CEC shows that in 2011, the country's new installed capacity of electric power is about 90 million kilowatts, of which, the installed capacity of thermal power is about 55 million kilowatts; the steel industry, urbanization, and regional construction Rejuvenation, real estate development, and the development of high-speed rail all require large amounts of steel. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently reported that this year's crude steel production is about 660 million tons, which will drive the demand for coking coal. In the building materials industry, the demand for coal in the building materials industry in 2010 is 460 million tons, and by 2011 it is expected to exceed 500 million tons. Due to the revitalization of the region and the construction of real estate housing, the demand for cement will also increase. The fertilizer market will remain stable and demand for anthracite coal will increase in 2011.
According to the macroeconomic model established by the National Grid Economic Research Institute, taking into account the external environment, domestic macroeconomic policies and the development trend of various industries, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in 2011 will reach about 8%, so the demand for coal in 2011 will reach 17-18 billion tons, under normal circumstances, the demand for electric coal ** 50%-55% of the country's annual coal demand, so in 2011 China's annual coal demand should be about 34-36 million tons. The data released by the China Coal Industry Association at the end of 2010 showed that China’s coal production in 2010 was around 3.2-3.3 billion tons. In recent years, China’s coal production growth rate was about 7.7% year-on-year. Based on this growth rate, China’s coal output in 2011 About 34-35 billion tons, plus net coal imports (net coal imports of 145 million tons in 2010), coal supply can fully meet demand.
Although coal supply and demand are roughly balanced, there are too many intermediate problems in the coal market in China, especially coal transportation. China's coal production is in the west, and the power generation center is in the east. Coal transportation capacity cannot keep up with the growth rate of coal production. The transportation problems caused by the “Western coal to the east†industry pattern will become more and more prominent, and the bottleneck of coal transportation will still be difficult to eliminate in the short term. The tension in capacity will artificially create an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to artificially high coal prices.
As we all know, China's coal market has two prices: contract coal price and market coal price. The price difference between the two is more than 1 times, and the price gap has brought huge rent-seeking space. A large number of middlemen are flooded in the middle of coal. The loose monetary policy and the profit-driven nature of the currency make the market more liquid. During the peak period of coal consumption, not only large coal companies will carry out coal reserves, but coal middlemen will also be reluctant to sell Yancoal. Man-made coal supply is tight, and tight supply will further boost coal prices.
In addition, the impact of international coal prices on domestic coal prices has been increasing, especially since China became the world’s second-largest coal importer in recent years. Both domestic and international prices constrain each other and influence each other. In addition, the long-term weakness of the U.S. dollar boosts the continued rise in the prices of international commodities, including resource products. According to the current trend of international coal prices, international coal prices are likely to remain high or continue to surge in 2011. International coal prices form a strong support for domestic coal prices, which will increase the expectations of coal prices in the domestic market.
According to the author's judgment, the demand for coal in related downstream industries will grow steadily in 2011, and coal supply will be able to meet demand. The supply and demand of the coal market will be largely balanced in the year, but intermediate links and international markets will become the main factors affecting coal prices. Will show a steady rise in the pattern.
The price of coal is mainly affected by the supply and demand relationship in the coal market. From the demand point of view, the electric power industry, the latest report released by the CEC shows that in 2011, the country's new installed capacity of electric power is about 90 million kilowatts, of which, the installed capacity of thermal power is about 55 million kilowatts; the steel industry, urbanization, and regional construction Rejuvenation, real estate development, and the development of high-speed rail all require large amounts of steel. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently reported that this year's crude steel production is about 660 million tons, which will drive the demand for coking coal. In the building materials industry, the demand for coal in the building materials industry in 2010 is 460 million tons, and by 2011 it is expected to exceed 500 million tons. Due to the revitalization of the region and the construction of real estate housing, the demand for cement will also increase. The fertilizer market will remain stable and demand for anthracite coal will increase in 2011.
According to the macroeconomic model established by the National Grid Economic Research Institute, taking into account the external environment, domestic macroeconomic policies and the development trend of various industries, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in 2011 will reach about 8%, so the demand for coal in 2011 will reach 17-18 billion tons, under normal circumstances, the demand for electric coal ** 50%-55% of the country's annual coal demand, so in 2011 China's annual coal demand should be about 34-36 million tons. The data released by the China Coal Industry Association at the end of 2010 showed that China’s coal production in 2010 was around 3.2-3.3 billion tons. In recent years, China’s coal production growth rate was about 7.7% year-on-year. Based on this growth rate, China’s coal output in 2011 About 34-35 billion tons, plus net coal imports (net coal imports of 145 million tons in 2010), coal supply can fully meet demand.
Although coal supply and demand are roughly balanced, there are too many intermediate problems in the coal market in China, especially coal transportation. China's coal production is in the west, and the power generation center is in the east. Coal transportation capacity cannot keep up with the growth rate of coal production. The transportation problems caused by the “Western coal to the east†industry pattern will become more and more prominent, and the bottleneck of coal transportation will still be difficult to eliminate in the short term. The tension in capacity will artificially create an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to artificially high coal prices.
As we all know, China's coal market has two prices: contract coal price and market coal price. The price difference between the two is more than 1 times, and the price gap has brought huge rent-seeking space. A large number of middlemen are flooded in the middle of coal. The loose monetary policy and the profit-driven nature of the currency make the market more liquid. During the peak period of coal consumption, not only large coal companies will carry out coal reserves, but coal middlemen will also be reluctant to sell Yancoal. Man-made coal supply is tight, and tight supply will further boost coal prices.
In addition, the impact of international coal prices on domestic coal prices has been increasing, especially since China became the world’s second-largest coal importer in recent years. Both domestic and international prices constrain each other and influence each other. In addition, the long-term weakness of the U.S. dollar boosts the continued rise in the prices of international commodities, including resource products. According to the current trend of international coal prices, international coal prices are likely to remain high or continue to surge in 2011. International coal prices form a strong support for domestic coal prices, which will increase the expectations of coal prices in the domestic market.
According to the author's judgment, the demand for coal in related downstream industries will grow steadily in 2011, and coal supply will be able to meet demand. The supply and demand of the coal market will be largely balanced in the year, but intermediate links and international markets will become the main factors affecting coal prices. Will show a steady rise in the pattern.
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