Once Germany’s demand weakens and the markets of China and the United States are not really launched, China’s huge PV manufacturing companies will likely be in trouble.
After the industry recession of 2008, no one can imagine that solar cell demand will be so hot this year. However, whether the market will continue to grow strongly in the future, or whether it will suddenly decline, there is no final conclusion.
Assuming that European PV subsidies are losing ground, and the Chinese and American markets cannot make up for these vacancies, the solar industry may be in a low-speed phase for a long time.
The outlook for the German market is worrisome
No one has questioned the great appeal of the German market, but pessimists believe that its prospects are not very good.
In fact, at the end of 2009, German energy Chancellor Merkel’s energy spokesperson planned for the solar market in 2010: Germany will cut solar subsidies sharply that year. The German government did make a 20% to 23% reduction in subsidies for ground, farm and industrial solar energy this year. What is even more worrying is that Germany may continue to cut such subsidies next year, and the decline may reach 13%.
In addition, the load on the German grid will be challenged by the arrival of solar energy.
The total installed capacity of solar energy this year is about 15G watts, and Germany accounts for nearly half of the total. Compared to last year, the number of installations in Germany has doubled. If this situation continues, then by 2013, Germany's new installations will likely reach as much as 30G watts, and the stability and safety of the grid will be tested.
At present, solar energy storage technology is not yet in place. In this way, even if a family's roof is equipped with solar cells, the amount of electricity generated during the day is extremely sufficient, but it cannot be enjoyed at night, so the solar energy collected by the family needs to be fully connected to the German main power grid. In addition, at night, the family still has to supply electricity through the ordinary grid to turn on the lights, use water, and watch TV.
If a household has both solar energy and a normal power grid, when the proportion of solar power generation is too high, the instantaneous power flow will cause problems such as excessive or too small power, and household refrigerators, air conditioners, etc. Suddenly there will be a blackout.
In the situation that Germany's demand may decline, Italy, France, Spain and other places may also have certain PV demand, but there is no hope.
In 2009, Spain, Italy, Greece and other installations were 500 MW, 451 MW and 145 MW, respectively. This year Greece has a debt crisis, and other European countries such as Spain will also be affected by the reduction of German subsidies, and reduce their subsidy share.
In short, Germany's market capacity is limited, and the photovoltaic industry cannot develop without limit. Once Germany's demand weakens and the US and Chinese markets do not really start, China's huge PV manufacturing companies will likely face big troubles.
Chinese market has not started
It may not be a short-term solution to start the solar market in China. Whether it is Suntech Holdings, CSI Artes, or Jiangsu Linyang, Jingao and other solar manufacturers, they know that the Chinese market is the world's largest solar market. However, people also agree that the current domestic incentives for solar energy are far less than wind power and nuclear power. Wind power expansion of more than 50% of the market every year is based on the rapid development of domestic wind farms, but the double sales of domestic solar cells are mainly dependent on the demand in Europe.
In China, although the government has introduced policies such as “Golden Sun Project†and “Solar Roof Plan†with a total subsidy of about 10 billion yuan, these projects are limited to demonstration projects. Due to the small number of projects, it is also possible for investors to bid regardless of the cost of bidding, which brings two disadvantages: First, the government mistakenly believes that China does not need subsidies, the photovoltaic industry can be launched instantaneously, and we want to expect more in the future. Financial support will be difficult; secondly, some projects may cut corners for cost savings, which will make the government more cautious in issuing projects in the future.
What is worrying is that Chinese companies are blindly pursuing the expansion of industry scale and neglecting technological progress. For example, the same type of battery components, due to lower cost in China, local manufacturers such as the United States and Europe will join forces in their respective sites to combat the export of Chinese products through anti-dumping, countervailing and other means.
China assumes that there are no high-end batteries with moderate cost and leading technology. In the future, local producers such as the US and Europe will choose to relocate all their production lines to China. By then, the advantages of Chinese enterprises will disappear.
Moreover, China's photovoltaic equipment production is also extremely backward. Mr. Liu, a technical expert of LDK Company of Jiangxi Saiwei, told this newspaper that in the field of thin film batteries, a transparent conductive oxide deposited on a glass plate to form a silicon-based semiconductor layer, and a special microcrystalline reaction chamber are also from abroad. import.
Therefore, there are still many uncertainties in the future PV industry market: neither can it be expected to mature in various markets, nor should it focus on expanding production. Enterprises still need to develop high-quality, high conversion efficiency and low-cost battery technology. Only when enterprises have mastered better technology and produced better products will they not be overwhelmed in the “Red Sea†of competition.
After the industry recession of 2008, no one can imagine that solar cell demand will be so hot this year. However, whether the market will continue to grow strongly in the future, or whether it will suddenly decline, there is no final conclusion.
Assuming that European PV subsidies are losing ground, and the Chinese and American markets cannot make up for these vacancies, the solar industry may be in a low-speed phase for a long time.
The outlook for the German market is worrisome
No one has questioned the great appeal of the German market, but pessimists believe that its prospects are not very good.
In fact, at the end of 2009, German energy Chancellor Merkel’s energy spokesperson planned for the solar market in 2010: Germany will cut solar subsidies sharply that year. The German government did make a 20% to 23% reduction in subsidies for ground, farm and industrial solar energy this year. What is even more worrying is that Germany may continue to cut such subsidies next year, and the decline may reach 13%.
In addition, the load on the German grid will be challenged by the arrival of solar energy.
The total installed capacity of solar energy this year is about 15G watts, and Germany accounts for nearly half of the total. Compared to last year, the number of installations in Germany has doubled. If this situation continues, then by 2013, Germany's new installations will likely reach as much as 30G watts, and the stability and safety of the grid will be tested.
At present, solar energy storage technology is not yet in place. In this way, even if a family's roof is equipped with solar cells, the amount of electricity generated during the day is extremely sufficient, but it cannot be enjoyed at night, so the solar energy collected by the family needs to be fully connected to the German main power grid. In addition, at night, the family still has to supply electricity through the ordinary grid to turn on the lights, use water, and watch TV.
If a household has both solar energy and a normal power grid, when the proportion of solar power generation is too high, the instantaneous power flow will cause problems such as excessive or too small power, and household refrigerators, air conditioners, etc. Suddenly there will be a blackout.
In the situation that Germany's demand may decline, Italy, France, Spain and other places may also have certain PV demand, but there is no hope.
In 2009, Spain, Italy, Greece and other installations were 500 MW, 451 MW and 145 MW, respectively. This year Greece has a debt crisis, and other European countries such as Spain will also be affected by the reduction of German subsidies, and reduce their subsidy share.
In short, Germany's market capacity is limited, and the photovoltaic industry cannot develop without limit. Once Germany's demand weakens and the US and Chinese markets do not really start, China's huge PV manufacturing companies will likely face big troubles.
Chinese market has not started
It may not be a short-term solution to start the solar market in China. Whether it is Suntech Holdings, CSI Artes, or Jiangsu Linyang, Jingao and other solar manufacturers, they know that the Chinese market is the world's largest solar market. However, people also agree that the current domestic incentives for solar energy are far less than wind power and nuclear power. Wind power expansion of more than 50% of the market every year is based on the rapid development of domestic wind farms, but the double sales of domestic solar cells are mainly dependent on the demand in Europe.
In China, although the government has introduced policies such as “Golden Sun Project†and “Solar Roof Plan†with a total subsidy of about 10 billion yuan, these projects are limited to demonstration projects. Due to the small number of projects, it is also possible for investors to bid regardless of the cost of bidding, which brings two disadvantages: First, the government mistakenly believes that China does not need subsidies, the photovoltaic industry can be launched instantaneously, and we want to expect more in the future. Financial support will be difficult; secondly, some projects may cut corners for cost savings, which will make the government more cautious in issuing projects in the future.
What is worrying is that Chinese companies are blindly pursuing the expansion of industry scale and neglecting technological progress. For example, the same type of battery components, due to lower cost in China, local manufacturers such as the United States and Europe will join forces in their respective sites to combat the export of Chinese products through anti-dumping, countervailing and other means.
China assumes that there are no high-end batteries with moderate cost and leading technology. In the future, local producers such as the US and Europe will choose to relocate all their production lines to China. By then, the advantages of Chinese enterprises will disappear.
Moreover, China's photovoltaic equipment production is also extremely backward. Mr. Liu, a technical expert of LDK Company of Jiangxi Saiwei, told this newspaper that in the field of thin film batteries, a transparent conductive oxide deposited on a glass plate to form a silicon-based semiconductor layer, and a special microcrystalline reaction chamber are also from abroad. import.
Therefore, there are still many uncertainties in the future PV industry market: neither can it be expected to mature in various markets, nor should it focus on expanding production. Enterprises still need to develop high-quality, high conversion efficiency and low-cost battery technology. Only when enterprises have mastered better technology and produced better products will they not be overwhelmed in the “Red Sea†of competition.
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