Hot Roll Forecast: Maintaining a Down Trend

The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils in 24 major markets nationwide was 3,206 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in 24 major markets nationwide was 3,109 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day. Lowered by 21 yuan/ton.

Tangshan billet, yesterday afternoon, Tangshan billet prices fell 20 yuan / ton, opened this morning, the current local carbon billet 150 ex-factory price 2380 yuan / ton, 165 rectangular billet 2410 yuan / ton, low alloy billet 2500 yuan / ton tax ex-factory, The dealer's naked price is 2288 yuan/ton, and Changlipu billet cash ex-factory price is 2380 yuan/ton.

** In terms of yesterday's hot rolled coils, the main contract Hc1501 opened 2790, the highest 2850, the lowest 2786, closing at 2808 yuan / ton in late trading, trading volume of 15,950 hands, reducing the amount of 994 hands.

According to domestic news, from the afternoon of the 22nd to the evening of the 23rd, the rumor that the central bank is about to release four restrictions on lending will continue to ferment, and it will continue to reverse. As of 21:00 pm on the evening of the 23rd, according to the results of an interview with reporters, the four major banks all said that there is no clear information yet. In spite of this, market participants interviewed believe that rumors reflect the desire of some local governments and market participants to stabilize the property market, and also reflect the fact that “relaxing purchases has no effect and relaxing mortgages is the key”. Once the rumors come true, it will give a big boost to market expectations.

According to international news, a survey released by Markit on Tuesday (September 23) showed that the pace of expansion of corporate activities in the Eurozone was slightly lower than expected in September, and the growth rate of manufacturing and service industries fell to the lowest level this year, further demonstrating economic growth in the region. It is slowly wilting. At the same time, the company lowered its price for the 30th consecutive month.

Market dynamics, yesterday, the domestic hot-rolled prices accelerated, the market volume was light, dark or bulk discounts increased significantly, showing that the lack of business confidence, the speed and extent of decline increased. At present, billet prices continue to fall, ** and the stock market fluctuates, which has a greater impact on the mentality of spot merchants. In the tide of price cuts, they can only follow the market, and the chaos falls. In summary, under the dual influence of sluggish raw materials and sluggish market demand, coupled with the fact that pre-holiday prices continue to decline, it is expected that the prices of hot coils will continue to fall.