China's steel industry worried about repeating the "iron ore" dilemma

Iron ore is an indescribable pain for the Chinese steel industry. At the moment, people are increasingly concerned about coking coal, another important raw material for steel production, or will be the next "iron ore."

According to the statistics, in 2009, China's coking coal imports amounted to 34.40 million tons, an increase of 402% year-on-year, becoming a net importer. In 2010, the import volume of coking coal was 47.27 million tons, an increase of 37% year-on-year. While China’s steel companies are increasingly dependent on overseas coking coal, international coking coal prices have also continued to rise, rising by as much as US$340/ton, and are still fluctuating at high levels.

According to news recently, the National Energy Administration is studying the development of special and scarce coal species management methods and has implemented protective development of special and scarce coals such as coking coal. An industry insider said in an interview with this reporter that if this policy is implemented, it will further increase the supply and demand gap of domestic coking coal.

Coking coal will also perform "hungry disease"

Australia’s coking coal exports account for more than 60% of the global market. Therefore, the market had been worried that the floods that occurred in Australia’s coal-producing areas at the end of last year would affect global coking coal supply, resulting in rising coking coal prices. However, according to news from the International Energy Network, the latest data show that in Queensland, Australia, where coking coal was mainly exported, the output of coking coal still increased by 3% in 2011 despite the fact that the coal production was reduced due to floods. This also proves to some extent the view of some analysts in the market: Compared to the floods, the increasing demand in the Chinese market is the continuous driving force for the increase of coking coal prices.

Coking coal is an important raw material in the steel production process. As the world’s largest steel producer, like iron ore, China’s coking coal demand is also very alarming. It is reported that in 2010 China produced more than 600 million tons of crude steel, reaching 626.654 million tons. Since 1 ton of iron is refined, about 2 ton of iron ore and 1.4 ton of coke are needed, while 1 ton of coke needs 1.4 to 1.6 ton of coking coal. This also means that the amount of coking coal consumed by China's steelmaking last year exceeded 1 billion tons. The amount of iron ore consumed is similar.

On the other hand, although China's coal resources are abundant, high-quality coking coal is rather scarce, and the main coking coal and fat coal resources are insufficient, especially the coking coal resources with strong adhesion. The data shows that as of the end of 2009, the country’s coal reserves were 1.31 trillion tons, of which high-quality coking coal, fat coal, and lean coal (which belong to the main coking coal) only had about 30 billion tons of reserves.

Due to scarcity of resources, Fang Jun, director of the National Energy Administration’s Coal Department, said in an interview with the media that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the Energy Administration will study and formulate specific and scarce coal species management methods for special and scarce coals such as coking coal. Implement protective development. At present, the National Energy Administration is organizing the national research on coking coal resources, the purpose of which is to find out about the occurrence, development and utilization of coking coal resources throughout the country. After the investigation is completed, the Energy Bureau will combine the “12th Five-Year Plan” of coal industry development. Plan to determine the layout of the national coking coal resources development during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

"If this is the case, the (coking coal supply) gap will further expand, and it may push up the price again." "My steel net" analyst Zhang Tieshan told the reporter.

Chinese steel companies urgently need to take precautions about whether coking coal may cause iron ore dust problems. The Secretary-General of the Hebei Coking Coal Association Zhang Bochun said in an interview with this reporter: “There is indeed this possibility.”

“The output of crude steel in China is growing rapidly, and the use of coke is faster than production.” Zhang Tieshan also expressed to the reporter's concern about the tight supply of coking coal. “There is a different situation between coal coke and iron ore. That is, steel can be reused, and coking coal is not. If it is burned, it will be gone.” Therefore, Zhang Tieshan believes that domestic steel enterprises should take precautions as soon as possible if they have the ability.

Baosteel, which has long been regarded as an industry leader, has been at the forefront this time. On February 28, Baosteel announced the signing of a long-term coking coal cooperation agreement with Australia's Rio Tinto. Baosteel became the first coking coal customer of Rio Tinto in China. According to the agreement, Rio Tinto will continue to supply Baosteel with high-quality coking coal from this year for a period of three years. However, Baosteel did not disclose the details of the agreement and the annual supply of coking coal.

In addition to signing long-term supply agreements, there are also some steel companies that have “prelimined first” in other ways. For example, Shanxi Coking Coal and Shanxi Taigang Group jointly formed Shanxi Coal Steel Energy Development Co., Ltd.; Wuhan Iron & Steel has gone abroad to sign a non-binding memorandum of understanding with RML to purchase 8% of the company’s shares. Owned a 40% stake in the Zambezi coal mine project in Mozambique.