The recent fall in aluminum prices is limited. This week saw a weak trend from the previous consolidation period to the downward search of trading space. At the beginning of the week, a large amount of speculative long profit taking occurred in Shanghai aluminum trading. This was the main force that led to the decline in intraday trading. It continued for 16,000 yuan. After the following consolidation is difficult to form an upward trend, its strong resistance position has been reaffirmed. Shrinking volume and open interest are guiding the market downwards to seek support. In the following trading days, aluminum prices have repeatedly hit the market recently. New low. The continuous Yinxian on the chart has hit market investors' enthusiasm for investment. The decline of the day has also gradually expanded and the aluminum price has moved to the support level of 15,000 yuan. The domestic spot price shows a trend of decreasing day by day within a week. It fell by more than 200 yuan a week, which was detached from the previous support of 15,300 yuan/ton. It is currently reported at around 15040-15,060 yuan/ton, and the futures price also fell with the spot price. The contracted futures premium was marked as a premium when the trading day approached, highlighting the fact that spot prices under huge inventories are under tremendous pressure. Although London Aluminum is currently in the correction trend, but in the weak cooperation with Shanghai Aluminum, domestic and international spreads are still further widened, the domestic spot price compared with the LME spot price, the two prices have dropped to about 8.7, with the current parity We can see that not only export under the processing of imported materials can be done, but also there is room for profit under general trade, and the current 8% policy for export tax rebates is still being implemented. When general trade can be carried out, even if the manual cannot be obtained, Enterprises or traders can still export aluminum ingots, and relying on exports to reduce spot pressure can still be expected. This time, the adjustment of the electricity price of electrolytic aluminum companies has exceeded the capacity of most electrolytic aluminum companies, and the growth of primary aluminum production has slowed down. The export of aluminum ingots has been accelerating this month, and the consumption has not dropped sharply. As a result, domestic supply and demand will experience a certain degree of improvement. However, the change in export tax rebate policy is still a relatively big pressure on the market. If the policy of canceling the export tax rebate restricts the export of primary aluminum, what should be done? The excess aluminum ingots in the domestic market will inevitably suppress domestic aluminum prices, and aluminum prices will drop sharply. At the same time, the cancellation of the alumina processing trade will increase the cost of alumina imports. According to the current price of 350 US dollars for alumina imports, the difference between the average trade and feed processing costs is about 270 yuan/ton, and with 1.8 million tons of alumina processing trade, electrolytic aluminum companies will increase the cost by 460 million yuan. This week's spot market performance changed the export tax rebate policy to a certain extent. This week's rise and fall in aluminum prices are almost all related to the rumors of the export tax rebate policy. The export tax rebate will have a long-term impact on the aluminum market, but the introduction of this news will accelerate the export of primary aluminum, and the process of Lumber Aluminum's seeking support for the end of the process will end up supporting Shanghai Aluminum in the short term. The lack of speculative power in the aluminum market, on the one hand, is that the harsh fundamental environment of the aluminum market is unable to attract more funds to enter the market. On the other hand, it also shows that the speculative power of the empty side cannot expand downwards speculative space. After aluminum prices have fallen after the previous period, , Already in the digestion of the market's negative factors, aluminum market shrinking positions will make the possibility of aluminum prices rose sharply lower trend, so that aluminum prices recently fell to a limited space. (Shanghai Jin Peng Li Ling)
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