Zhongzhou Futures believes that Shanghai Aluminum continues its high oscillation market

Affected by the slight increase in London aluminum prices overnight, Shanghai Aluminum advanced slightly on the 30th. Li Jingyuan, a futures analyst at Zhongzhou, believes that Shanghai Aluminum continues its high swing but does not change. Shanghai Aluminum Corporation slightly rose on September 30. In early trading, due to the slight increase in overnight aluminum prices in London, domestic aluminum prices rose slightly, but the price did not continue to fluctuate but declined. However, the major contracts at the close were still slightly smaller at 50--90 yuan than the 29-day settlement price. rise. Although the intraday trading volume increased, it was still very low. The total volume was 28,498 lots. On the 29th day, it was 17,568 lots. The total volume was 110,420 lots, and 806 lots of Masukura. The main 0412 contract opened slightly higher at 17040 yuan, after which the oscillations fell, a higher 17050 yuan, a lower 16950 yuan, closing at 16980 yuan, compared with September 29 settlement price rose 70 yuan, closing 13762 hands, holding positions 46332 hand, lighten up 1992 hands. The monthly spot price closed at 16,840 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan from the settlement price on September 29. Shanghai Aluminum continued its high price swing on the 30th, but the intraday trading was clearly light, indicating the market's wait-and-see attitude. It may be related to the market's cautious attitude towards long holidays, and the speculative bullish pre-holiday liquidation also led to high prices. Go, but the market remains relatively strong. Spot aluminum prices rose slightly. Shanghai's September 30 spot price range was between 16,800 and 16,830 yuan, up 45 yuan from September 29. China Aluminum Corporation's quotation for electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged on September 30. East China market reported 16,850 yuan, South China market reported 16,950 yuan and Southwest China market reported 16,700 yuan. China Aluminum's alumina (primary product, second) offer is 3930 yuan, which remains unchanged. According to the sales staff, the recent sales are good, which makes the price obviously supported. The increase in aluminum prices in this round was caused by the previous hurricane impact in Jamaica. Nearly half of the alumina in the country needs to be imported, and Jamaica’s supply of alumina to China accounts for 20% of the total import volume. The hurricane makes Jamaica The export was temporarily blocked and the market expected this to continue for some time. At present, the alumina CIF price in the Chinese market is US$420/tonne. Before the hurricane Ivan attacked Jamaica, the alumina CIF price in the Chinese market was 390--400 US dollars / ton. Domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have hoarded raw materials in advance for long holidays, exacerbating the market sentiment of tight supply of alumina. China Aluminum's alumina (primary product, second) offer rose to 3930 yuan, the previous period was 3750 yuan. From October 1st, the price of electricity will rise, and the floating space will be 0.02 to 0.05 yuan per kilowatt-hour. The rise in electricity prices again increased the production cost of electrolytic aluminum. The promotion of cost is an important factor in the rise of domestic aluminum prices. In the LME market, London Aluminium was in a high consolidation position at 1,800 U.S. dollars, and it had a demand for exploration, which led to the formation of domestic aluminum prices. Daswani, director of research at Metal Bulletin Research (MBR), estimates that the global primary aluminum market had a production gap of 463,000 tons in 2004, and China's primary aluminum demand in 2004 grew by 16-17%. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum (0412) opened higher, fell slightly, closed slightly, but prices remained strong, and the swing index was also in a strong region. At present, prices continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the price rise is not over. It is recommended that investors continue to hold more than one order, and investors may choose to absorb lows and not chase highs.

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