Abstract The latest published import and export data shows that the growth rate of import and export in the first three quarters has dropped sharply by 7.9%, which is far from the annual growth target of 6% determined at the beginning of the year. It is worth noting that the decline in exports in the third quarter has been narrowing month by month. National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson...
The latest published import and export data shows that the import and export growth rate in the first three quarters has dropped sharply by 7.9%, which is far from the annual growth target of 6% determined at the beginning of the year. It is worth noting that the decline in exports in the third quarter has been narrowing month by month. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference on the 19th that the pressure on imports and exports will be greater in the future. Although the recent TPP sign has little impact on the Chinese economy in the short term, it is important to pay attention to the impact of TPP on China's foreign trade. Analysts believe that the effect of RMB depreciation and stable foreign trade policy is gradually emerging. It is expected that exports will stabilize in the fourth quarter.
Pay attention to the impact of TPP on foreign trade
The impact of TPP on the Chinese economy, especially on China's foreign trade, has received much attention from the market. Sheng Laiyun said that the short-term impact of the TPP on the Chinese economy will not be great. First of all, there is still a process for the TPP to sign from the initial intention to the final adoption and implementation, so there is some uncertainty. Second, China has already taken measures against this, such as accelerating bilateral free trade negotiations, speeding up the “Belt and Road†strategy, and accelerating the construction of free trade zones, which can hedge some of the impact to a certain extent. More importantly, the Chinese market is huge, and the final trade depends on market demand. Therefore, both developing and developed countries have a strong interest in entering the Chinese market. China is willing to strengthen bilateral cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit. Therefore, the short-term impact is not great.
However, Sheng Laiyun also said that the TPP is a multilateral trading system after all, and the total economic output of the 12 countries involved in the TPP accounts for about 40% of the total world economy. If it is implemented in accordance with the provisions of this agreement, nearly 20,000 products will be subject to zero tariffs, which will put some pressure on China's foreign trade. Therefore, China must seize the opportunity to increase domestic adjustments to industrial upgrading, become passive and take the initiative, and turn challenges into opportunities, making it a positive energy to promote China's industrial upgrading.
Sheng Laiyun believes that the pressure on import and export in the future is still relatively large. He said that from an international perspective, the world economy is still in the midst of post-crisis deep adjustment, showing a low growth, low prices, low interest rates, imbalances, and increased shocks. It is still difficult to change in the short term. In addition, developed countries have reduced imports to developing countries by accelerating the process of re-industrialization. In addition, the economy of developing countries has generally declined this year, and the market demand is relatively weak. In addition, their production costs are relatively cheap, and some of them occupy the space of China's foreign trade exports, so the pressure on imports and exports is relatively large.
The devaluation effect gradually emerges
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2015 decreased by 7.9% compared with the same period of the previous year, which is far from the annual growth target of 6% determined at the beginning of the year, with exports falling by 1.8% year-on-year. In the third quarter, exports fell by 5.6% year-on-year, and the decline was further expanded compared with the second quarter, but the monthly decline gradually narrowed.
Wang Jianhui, a macro analyst at Capital Securities, believes that this reflects the slow improvement in external demand and the stimulating effect of RMB depreciation on exports. In terms of the amount, exports in September increased by 8.7 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month. Since March this year, the export value has increased month by month, reflecting the overall stability of China’s export situation. In terms of exporting countries, exports to developed economies such as Europe and Japan improved in September. In September, China’s exports to the United States increased by 6.0% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month; exports to the EU decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; exports to Japan decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous month. Narrow 0.7 percentage points. In addition, the stimulating effect of the one-off sharp depreciation of exports on exports in August has gradually emerged, which has become an important reason for the continued growth of exports.
Wang Jianhui said that the fourth quarter is usually the peak period of exports. Despite the substantial breakthrough in the TPP negotiations, it will take time for the official landing and actual implementation of the agreement. The impact on China's exports is a medium- and long-term event. Stabilization can last.
Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, said that the economic recovery in developed countries and the slowdown in the effective exchange rate appreciation of the renminbi will promote the gradual stabilization and recovery of exports. However, the economic recovery in developed countries is not strong, and the export effect on China is limited. Gradually return to a weak growth pattern of around 3%, and the rebound in exports has limited contribution to economic stabilization.
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