Since it first reached the "world's first automobile production and sales country" in 2009, the world's largest auto dealer has taken the Chinese market of 1.3 billion people to a very high position, not only gradually increasing the propaganda in the Chinese market, The intensity of production, even the attitude of cooperation with Chinese car companies is not as proud as before. In this era of market-determined everything, China has become a “holy place†for car dealers to worship in an unrivalled market position in the world. However, after a period of prosperity, China's auto industry has gradually fallen into a crisis of incompetence, which is the risk of overcapacity in the eyes caused by uncontrolled expansion of production capacity.
Overcapacity has become a reality
This problem of overcapacity has received the attention of the government at the two sessions two months ago. Therefore, we can see that key industries including automobiles, steel and cement have been “pointed to criticize†and become the focus of industry adjustment. This also means that the threshold of China's auto will be raised in the future, and the car's birth certificate will be hard to find. Once the specific measures related to incremental control are implemented, this regulatory trend will inevitably leave the multinational automakers who are still outside the door, or will seek “life†without a door, and will also affect those who are just getting started and waiting for the approval of the relevant units. Joint venture construction project.
Although the policy no longer encourages foreign investors to invest in vehicle manufacturing, it is an indisputable fact that automakers that have already started production are still increasing their capacity targets. It is reported that by the end of 2015, the national vehicle scale will exceed 40 million vehicles, double the sales volume in 2011. Among them, SAIC's capacity planning is raised to 6 million units, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan Group are all targeting 5 million units, Beiqi plans 3.5 million units, Guangzhou Automobile plans 3 million units, Chery and Great Wall Motor 601633 plans for 2 million units. .
Along with these domestic companies, there are more skilled and financially foreign companies. The highly authoritative KPMG’s 2012 Global Automotive Executive Survey Report shows that in 2011, China’s automobile idle capacity reached 6 million vehicles. Equivalent to twice the size of the German automotive market, it is expected that by 2016, idle capacity will rise to 9 million. However, auto companies have not slowed down the expansion due to overcapacity, or even dozens of companies plan to increase the number of dealers in the short term: Dongfeng Nissan, Guangqi Honda and GAC Toyota passenger cars, which are expected to be the top three in 2015. The production capacity of auto companies will increase to 2.12 million units per year, and the overall production capacity is expected to increase by 45%. The first phase of FAW-Volkswagen's plant in Chengdu and the fourth plant in Foshan will be completed and put into operation in 2013. By then, the total capacity of FAW-Volkswagen will exceed 1.65 million units; FAW Tianjin vehicle production base will be completed and put into production in 2014. It is estimated that by 2015, FAW's production capacity in Tianjin will double on the basis of the existing 750,000 units; Beijing Hyundai Third Factory will be this year. After completion and production, Beijing Hyundai's total production capacity will reach 1 million units; SAIC-GM-Wuling Qingdao's second-phase expansion project has been completed and put into production at the end of last year. The overall production capacity of SAIC-GM-Wuling has increased to 1.21 million units; the Changan Ford, which cost US$490 million Mazda's Chongqing No. 2 Plant has recently been completed and put into operation. The project will make Mazda's total production capacity in China exceed 600,000 units...
The most intuitive result of overcapacity is a sharp drop in profits. A report released by global information company JDPower recently showed that only 63% of domestic auto dealers were profitable in 2011; in 2010, this ratio was 81%. The proportion of dealers with operating losses also increased from 9% in 2010 to 20% in 2011. This also means that the impact of overcapacity on the automotive industry has begun to emerge.
Key components will become a breakthrough
On the one hand, the production capacity is constantly improving, while on the other hand, the market is relatively reduced; on the one hand, the rapid decline in profits, while on the other hand, the enthusiasm of investors is still there, then, for the company group capital that is eager to devote itself to the automobile industry, the key zero Parts or new energy technologies will be the most important breakthrough.
The rapid growth of China's economy is inseparable from the use of foreign capital. Today, in order to maintain this momentum of rapid growth, foreign investment cannot be abandoned, and so is the automobile industry. Some of the joint ventures that have crossed the gap will increase the disadvantages of overcapacity in the process of expanding production capacity, but it is these joint ventures that have brought technology, capital and models to promote the rapid development of China's auto industry. At present, 70% of domestically produced cars are produced by joint ventures, and the most profitable mid-to-high-end cars are basically the world of joint ventures.
However, today's China has entered the post-investment era, which means that foreign capital that used capital and technology to dominate the domestic auto market needs to reposition its role. In other words, the Chinese market needs these foreign capital and technology. With reasonable guidance, from now on, key components and technologies for investing in automobiles are still supported by policies.
The “Guidance Catalogue for Foreign Investment Industries†officially implemented on January 30, 2012 clarifies this concept, especially in its 19th “Transport Equipment Manufacturing Industryâ€, which details the projects that encourage foreign investment. Including: automobile engine manufacturing and engine R&D institution construction, automotive key component manufacturing and key technology research and development, automotive electronic device manufacturing and R&D, and manufacturing of key components for new energy vehicles. The above projects include a series of Chinese auto industry shortage technologies such as gasoline engines with up to 70 power and dual clutch transmissions. It can be seen that China has not tightened foreign investment in the automobile industry, but has shifted its investment focus from vehicle manufacturing to key automotive technologies and components.
Continued development of the attitude, and the use of more active ways to play the role of foreign capital has become a major feature of the current automotive industry, the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that with the overcapacity problem further, can not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach To cut off the connection between capital and production, we must strengthen the adjustment within the industry, that is, shift the power of production capacity to optimize the industrial structure and enhance productivity. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve the best results by simply aiming at the whole vehicle production, or simply selecting spare parts, technology, etc. Only by taking all factors into consideration can the optimal maximum effect of production capacity be achieved.
Therefore, with the deepening of the degree of openness to the outside world, the policy needs to increase the number of encouraged items, reduce the restricted and prohibited categories, and give foreign capital and foreign businessmen the power to exert their strength. At the same time, it is necessary to continuously promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industries, and regard high-end manufacturing as a key area to encourage foreign investment, and promote foreign investment in the use of new technologies, new processes, new materials, new equipment, and transform and upgrade traditional industries, because it is a new energy vehicle. , or high-performance cars, scientific and technological strength is the most important capital; in addition, should also focus on cultivating strategic emerging industries, especially to encourage foreign investment in energy conservation and environmental protection, new generation information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials Strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles provide greater support for China's automobiles and the entire manufacturing industry. Finally, as important as manufacturing, it is necessary to promote the development of the service industry, actively guide foreign investment in the service industry, and promote industrial restructuring. In particular, efforts should be made to achieve coordinated interregional development.
Taking spare parts and new energy as a breakthrough, it is precisely to adjust the shortcomings of overcapacity from the industrial structure. From the course of the 30-year history of China's auto industry, it can be seen that it is necessary to control the production capacity in stages, from planning to implementation to commissioning, usually takes two to three years, in the environment where the automobile market maintains stable development, the enterprise The capacity of the company maintains a 15% “surplus†and responds to possible changes in the market in advance, which is beneficial to the company's own development, industrial structure upgrading and market competition. Unfavorable to the development of the industry and impact on the market is a large-scale, structural overcapacity.
It can be seen that the Chinese auto industry is not only facing investment overcapacity, but a more serious structural surplus. This requires coordination between the government, car companies, dealers, foreign investors and other entities. Adjusting the current unbalanced capacity structure as the main direction, thereby eliminating the undesirable factors that lead to overcapacity, and promoting the competitive path of Chinese autos and even “Made in China†towards “quality†and “quantityâ€, thus promoting the healthy development of the auto industry.
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