Nuclear power enters high-speed growth

China Investment Advisory Network News Guojin Securities researcher Xing Zhigang of the new energy and power equipment industry said in his speech that according to the "New Energy Revitalization Plan Draft", by 2020 the planned installed nuclear power capacity will reach 86GW, close to 90GW, and now China has put into operation a total of nuclear power plants Six seats, with a total installed capacity of only 8.9 GW, most nuclear power plants are currently in the planning and construction process. The policy-based installation target will create a huge trillion nuclear cake in the next 10 years, and nuclear power will begin to enter a high growth period. Among them, nuclear power equipment investment accounts for about 60% of the total, reaching about 600 billion, and the sub-sectors with large market capacity in the industry chain and high technical difficulty will become the biggest beneficiaries of the huge market for nuclear power equipment.

The nuclear power industry has a long industrial chain, totaling about 300 kinds of systems and 10,000 sets of equipment. The industries involved include transportation, steel, metallurgy, materials manufacturing, and equipment manufacturing. In the sub-industry of the nuclear power industry chain, the researcher of Guojin Securities believes that due to the high technology and investment thresholds for nuclear power equipment manufacturing and the extremely high requirements for equipment stability and safety, relevant nuclear equipment manufacturing certification is required. The concentration of nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry is at the highest level in the power equipment manufacturing industry. Therefore, the manufacture of key components with high-tech nuclear power is expected to enter the oligopoly and the high concentration of nuclear power will be maintained by its high industry concentration. Interest rate level.

Among them, there are three sub-sectors that are most favored by researchers. The first is the main equipment manufacturers of nuclear islands and conventional islands. The main reason is that the main equipment market has a large capacity, reaching an annual average of about 27 billion yuan (accounting for about 45% of the total equipment investment). At the same time, main equipment manufacturing has higher technology and investment. The threshold, which represents the highest level of nuclear power manufacturing, is expected to exceed the average gross margin of 30%. The relevant representative companies are Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric and Harbin Power. According to the semi-annual report of Dongfang Electric, the company's nuclear power business in the first half of the year has shown a high growth trend, achieving sales revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, an increase of 171.05% over the same period of last year. According to the calculation of Guojin Securities, it is expected that the compound annual growth rate of Dongfang Electric's nuclear power revenue in 2010-2012 is expected to exceed 80%.

The rapid growth of nuclear power will create a demand of 6 billion to 7 billion per year for large-scale castings and forgings, while the release of domestic manufacturing capacity of castings and forgings will speed up the pace of import substitution, and at the same time, high industry concentration will help the castings and forgings to maintain over 30% of the gross interest rate. The nuclear forging process requires large-scale 10,000-ton free-forging presses. At present, China has only one heavy and two heavy-duty presses in China, and there are large-scale 10,000-ton forging machines for heavy equipment.

Followed by high-end nuclear grade stainless steel pipe, with an average annual market capacity of 3 billion -400 million, the localization of the product is still in its infancy, and the most difficult to manufacture is the nuclear grade steam generator tube. The related listed companies are mainly Jiuliti and Baosteel.

The third nuclear electronics industry that has received active attention is nuclear equipment such as fuel rod zirconium tubes and nuclear power valves. Its market capacity not only has new demands, but also has an increasing demand for replacement due to the increase in installed capacity. With the increase in installed nuclear power capacity in the future, the demand for nuclear power critical consumption equipment will gradually increase. Relevant listed companies include Oriental Zirconium, Bao Titanium, China Nuclear Technology, and Jiangsu Shentong.

According to incomplete statistics, the current installed capacity of nuclear power plants under construction and planning in China has exceeded 60 GW. Based on this estimate, nuclear power equipment is expected to undergo centralized confirmation from 2010 to 2010, and the peak operation period of nuclear power plants is expected to occur after 2015. At that time, the average annual new installed capacity will reach 8-9GW.