In the third quarter of 2011, the non-ferrous metals industry sentiment index was 101.3 points, continuing the upward trend since the second quarter; the warning index rose to 106.7 points. The overall operation of the industry continued to grow steadily, but the number of expected changes during the year increased; the international financial situation was complex and volatile, and non-ferrous metal prices fluctuated at a high level. Faced with the financial and monetary tightening, rising production costs and the pressure of appreciation, the upgrading of non-ferrous metal industry and the potential for business integration Imperative.
The overall prosperity index of the industry rose steadily in the third quarter of 2011. The non-ferrous metals industry sentiment index for the third quarter of 2011 was 101.3 points, up 0.8 points from the previous quarter and continuing the upward trend since the second quarter; the warning index of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry was 106.7 points. The quarterly increase of 6.7 points remained generally normal.
It can be seen that the nonferrous metals industry's economy continued to rebound after a low point in the first half of the year. The increase in the value of the index after removing random factors, and has run above the 2010 average, indicates that inflation is curbed and the property market is strengthened. Under the macroeconomic background of a series of policies such as regulation and control, and the overall healthy and stable development of the national economy, the self-impulse development of the non-ferrous metals industry remains upward despite policy adjustments.
This year, the industry’s profits have risen steadily for three consecutive quarters, but it has not yet recovered to the level before the 2008 financial crisis. During the same period, the year-on-year growth rate of employees in the industry was basically stable, and there was little change in labor demand. Product production, investment, and profitability have maintained steady growth. The extensive growth model that depends on the expansion of smelting production is changing, and the economic efficiency of enterprises continues to grow. However, with the tightening of monetary policy, liquidity is relatively tight, and operating pressures have gradually increased, adding to the expectations for the whole year.
China is still in the stage of heavy chemical industry. Non-ferrous metals, as basic materials, play an important role in the promotion of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and low carbonization in the country. Compared with developed countries, China's per capita possession of non-ferrous metals has a large gap. Therefore, under the premise of no major international economic crisis such as the 2008 financial crisis, the rigid demand for non-ferrous metals will keep the industry developing ups and downs in the long term. For the issue of the impact of macroeconomic regulation on the development of the industry, which has attracted widespread attention from industry insiders this year, it can be seen from the analysis of the report that the medium and long-term expectations brought by the adjustment of the country’s macroeconomic policies should be to make the development of the nonferrous metal industry more Rational and more sustainable.
However, we should also clearly see that there are fluctuations in the development of the non-ferrous metals industry. From a short-term perspective, international commodity prices, falling prices of non-ferrous metals, fluctuations in inventories, rising prices of raw materials, and increased production costs will affect demand in the fourth quarter and corporate profits throughout the year. Add variables. From the mid to long-term perspective, the goals of China's economic development during the “12th Five-Year Plan†will impose higher requirements on product variety, quality, energy conservation and emission reduction, and innovation and upgrading of enterprises, and some of the backward production capacity will be eliminated.
Another trend that merits attention is the reverse migration made in China. According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group in August, some manufacturing companies have moved back to the United States as the cost of production of US companies in China has risen. This kind of relocation will directly involve a series of strategic issues such as China's non-ferrous metal product export, industrial layout, scale of upstream and downstream industry chains, ore resource security, market positioning, etc. The long-term impact degree needs further analysis and evaluation.
The situation of intricate metal prices is high and the prices of non-ferrous metals products are generally at a high level and fluctuate. In the third quarter of this year, the prices of most non-ferrous metal products with relatively small scale of production rose sharply, especially those produced by resources, such as germanium, rare earth, and rare metals, which are strictly limited by national policies, but aluminum, lead, and zinc Such large-scale non-ferrous metals used in bulk industries have a limited increase. The precious metals such as gold and platinum have been oscillating at high prices due to their traditional role of hedging and the rising popularity of China's luxury consumer groups.
In the second half of the year, domestic demand for non-ferrous metals was in peak season, which provided some support for price increase. However, the international economic and financial situation has undergone fluctuations, especially the expansion of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States, making the financial properties of non-ferrous metals and the sensitivity of investment tools as outstanding performance. .
In the near term, the prices of most non-ferrous metal varieties are facing downward pressure. The metal prices of the London Metal Exchange suffered a general decline on September 24, with non-ferrous metals including copper, lead, nickel and tin all falling by more than 2.5%. The general expectation of recent domestic non-ferrous metal prices is also difficult to be optimistic. According to the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in August and September, the total consumer price index in August rose by 6.2% year-on-year and rose by 6.1% in September. The steady monetary policy in the short term will not change substantially; the real estate market volume will shrink , Has affected the downstream industries such as household appliances on the demand and price of non-ferrous metal processing profiles. In addition, the increasing international pressure to promote the appreciation of *** has also reduced the expected price competitiveness of non-ferrous metal products exports. Therefore, recent non-ferrous metal consumption and prices are less than expected at the beginning of the year, and the price growth rate will slow down in the fourth quarter. It also does not rule out the possibility that some non-ferrous metal prices will form a turning point.
Operational pressure to increase integration and upgrading is imperative. In the third quarter, China’s non-ferrous metal production increased by 9.1% from the previous quarter. Affected by fluctuations in demand, the growth rate slowed down, and sales revenue increased 41.6% year-on-year. Supply and demand were basically the same, but non-ferrous metals, aluminum, Copper, silicon and other varieties still have a certain degree of excess capacity.
The non-ferrous metals industry is a capital-intensive industry that is relatively dependent on liquidity. In August, the central bank added commercial bank letters of credit guarantee deposits, bond guarantee deposits, and bureaucratic deposits, etc., to the scope of reserve deposits, which has added to the tight funding of non-ferrous companies. Some copper production enterprises had to sell mines to ease the shortage of funds, and copper traders originally used orders with a three-month cash flow for settlement of letters of credit. Most of the orders were also changed to spot cash. Some small and medium-sized non-ferrous metal enterprises in the southern region faced difficulties due to the tight capital chain and increasing costs.
On the other hand, the increase in prices of coal, electricity, oil, and raw materials has caused the profitability of non-ferrous companies to be further squeezed. Due to the cancellation of electricity price concessions and other policies for high-energy-consuming enterprises, electrolytic aluminum with electricity costs exceeding 30% is the most affected. The enterprises in the central and eastern regions, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Guizhou have already suffered losses or low profits.
However, under the background of increasing costs, the profits of coal-fired and aluminum-integrated enterprises are still positive, demonstrating a competitive advantage and risk-resisting ability with a sound industrial chain and a high level of intensification. Industry profits also appear to be concentrated in enterprises with resources and energy advantages.
As the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals, China's non-ferrous metal industry has some products with excess capacity, unreasonable layout and structure, and low degree of intensification, which has become an important factor restricting industrial upgrading. Taking rare earth as an example, only three of China's more than 1,000 rare earth enterprises have a middle-aged treatment capacity of more than 5,000 tons. The low concentration of the industry has hindered the healthy development of the rare earth industry. The "Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Rare Earth Industry" proposes to develop a sustainable and healthy development pattern of the rare earth industry with rational development, orderly production, efficient use, advanced technology, and intensive development in about five years.
According to the industry development goals during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the large-scale mergers and acquisitions of the non-ferrous metal industry will become the main tone of development in the next five years. Non-ferrous metal companies have begun to accelerate the pace of mergers and restructuring and industrial upgrading. For example, Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia, relies on rich mineral resources and a strong smelting base to conduct cross-regional optimization and integration of industries and resources, extend the industrial chain and increase the degree of correlation, and enhance the market competitiveness and anti-risk capabilities of the non-ferrous metals industry as a whole.
The overall prosperity index of the industry rose steadily in the third quarter of 2011. The non-ferrous metals industry sentiment index for the third quarter of 2011 was 101.3 points, up 0.8 points from the previous quarter and continuing the upward trend since the second quarter; the warning index of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry was 106.7 points. The quarterly increase of 6.7 points remained generally normal.
It can be seen that the nonferrous metals industry's economy continued to rebound after a low point in the first half of the year. The increase in the value of the index after removing random factors, and has run above the 2010 average, indicates that inflation is curbed and the property market is strengthened. Under the macroeconomic background of a series of policies such as regulation and control, and the overall healthy and stable development of the national economy, the self-impulse development of the non-ferrous metals industry remains upward despite policy adjustments.
This year, the industry’s profits have risen steadily for three consecutive quarters, but it has not yet recovered to the level before the 2008 financial crisis. During the same period, the year-on-year growth rate of employees in the industry was basically stable, and there was little change in labor demand. Product production, investment, and profitability have maintained steady growth. The extensive growth model that depends on the expansion of smelting production is changing, and the economic efficiency of enterprises continues to grow. However, with the tightening of monetary policy, liquidity is relatively tight, and operating pressures have gradually increased, adding to the expectations for the whole year.
China is still in the stage of heavy chemical industry. Non-ferrous metals, as basic materials, play an important role in the promotion of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and low carbonization in the country. Compared with developed countries, China's per capita possession of non-ferrous metals has a large gap. Therefore, under the premise of no major international economic crisis such as the 2008 financial crisis, the rigid demand for non-ferrous metals will keep the industry developing ups and downs in the long term. For the issue of the impact of macroeconomic regulation on the development of the industry, which has attracted widespread attention from industry insiders this year, it can be seen from the analysis of the report that the medium and long-term expectations brought by the adjustment of the country’s macroeconomic policies should be to make the development of the nonferrous metal industry more Rational and more sustainable.
However, we should also clearly see that there are fluctuations in the development of the non-ferrous metals industry. From a short-term perspective, international commodity prices, falling prices of non-ferrous metals, fluctuations in inventories, rising prices of raw materials, and increased production costs will affect demand in the fourth quarter and corporate profits throughout the year. Add variables. From the mid to long-term perspective, the goals of China's economic development during the “12th Five-Year Plan†will impose higher requirements on product variety, quality, energy conservation and emission reduction, and innovation and upgrading of enterprises, and some of the backward production capacity will be eliminated.
Another trend that merits attention is the reverse migration made in China. According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group in August, some manufacturing companies have moved back to the United States as the cost of production of US companies in China has risen. This kind of relocation will directly involve a series of strategic issues such as China's non-ferrous metal product export, industrial layout, scale of upstream and downstream industry chains, ore resource security, market positioning, etc. The long-term impact degree needs further analysis and evaluation.
The situation of intricate metal prices is high and the prices of non-ferrous metals products are generally at a high level and fluctuate. In the third quarter of this year, the prices of most non-ferrous metal products with relatively small scale of production rose sharply, especially those produced by resources, such as germanium, rare earth, and rare metals, which are strictly limited by national policies, but aluminum, lead, and zinc Such large-scale non-ferrous metals used in bulk industries have a limited increase. The precious metals such as gold and platinum have been oscillating at high prices due to their traditional role of hedging and the rising popularity of China's luxury consumer groups.
In the second half of the year, domestic demand for non-ferrous metals was in peak season, which provided some support for price increase. However, the international economic and financial situation has undergone fluctuations, especially the expansion of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States, making the financial properties of non-ferrous metals and the sensitivity of investment tools as outstanding performance. .
In the near term, the prices of most non-ferrous metal varieties are facing downward pressure. The metal prices of the London Metal Exchange suffered a general decline on September 24, with non-ferrous metals including copper, lead, nickel and tin all falling by more than 2.5%. The general expectation of recent domestic non-ferrous metal prices is also difficult to be optimistic. According to the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in August and September, the total consumer price index in August rose by 6.2% year-on-year and rose by 6.1% in September. The steady monetary policy in the short term will not change substantially; the real estate market volume will shrink , Has affected the downstream industries such as household appliances on the demand and price of non-ferrous metal processing profiles. In addition, the increasing international pressure to promote the appreciation of *** has also reduced the expected price competitiveness of non-ferrous metal products exports. Therefore, recent non-ferrous metal consumption and prices are less than expected at the beginning of the year, and the price growth rate will slow down in the fourth quarter. It also does not rule out the possibility that some non-ferrous metal prices will form a turning point.
Operational pressure to increase integration and upgrading is imperative. In the third quarter, China’s non-ferrous metal production increased by 9.1% from the previous quarter. Affected by fluctuations in demand, the growth rate slowed down, and sales revenue increased 41.6% year-on-year. Supply and demand were basically the same, but non-ferrous metals, aluminum, Copper, silicon and other varieties still have a certain degree of excess capacity.
The non-ferrous metals industry is a capital-intensive industry that is relatively dependent on liquidity. In August, the central bank added commercial bank letters of credit guarantee deposits, bond guarantee deposits, and bureaucratic deposits, etc., to the scope of reserve deposits, which has added to the tight funding of non-ferrous companies. Some copper production enterprises had to sell mines to ease the shortage of funds, and copper traders originally used orders with a three-month cash flow for settlement of letters of credit. Most of the orders were also changed to spot cash. Some small and medium-sized non-ferrous metal enterprises in the southern region faced difficulties due to the tight capital chain and increasing costs.
On the other hand, the increase in prices of coal, electricity, oil, and raw materials has caused the profitability of non-ferrous companies to be further squeezed. Due to the cancellation of electricity price concessions and other policies for high-energy-consuming enterprises, electrolytic aluminum with electricity costs exceeding 30% is the most affected. The enterprises in the central and eastern regions, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Guizhou have already suffered losses or low profits.
However, under the background of increasing costs, the profits of coal-fired and aluminum-integrated enterprises are still positive, demonstrating a competitive advantage and risk-resisting ability with a sound industrial chain and a high level of intensification. Industry profits also appear to be concentrated in enterprises with resources and energy advantages.
As the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals, China's non-ferrous metal industry has some products with excess capacity, unreasonable layout and structure, and low degree of intensification, which has become an important factor restricting industrial upgrading. Taking rare earth as an example, only three of China's more than 1,000 rare earth enterprises have a middle-aged treatment capacity of more than 5,000 tons. The low concentration of the industry has hindered the healthy development of the rare earth industry. The "Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Rare Earth Industry" proposes to develop a sustainable and healthy development pattern of the rare earth industry with rational development, orderly production, efficient use, advanced technology, and intensive development in about five years.
According to the industry development goals during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the large-scale mergers and acquisitions of the non-ferrous metal industry will become the main tone of development in the next five years. Non-ferrous metal companies have begun to accelerate the pace of mergers and restructuring and industrial upgrading. For example, Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia, relies on rich mineral resources and a strong smelting base to conduct cross-regional optimization and integration of industries and resources, extend the industrial chain and increase the degree of correlation, and enhance the market competitiveness and anti-risk capabilities of the non-ferrous metals industry as a whole.
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