I. Review of the aluminum market in 2010
Throughout 2010, the price trend of non-ferrous metals including aluminum is not a systematic decline caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, nor is it a significant financial stimulus triggered by unprecedented quantitative stimulus policies in major economies such as China and the United States in 2009. Investment attributes. In 2010, the market was more characterized by a gradual decline in financial attributes and a gradual return to the “transition period†of supply and demand fundamentals.
From the specific performance point of view, from the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2010, with the speculation of electricity supply in some aluminum plants in Europe, both internal and external aluminum have seen up the market, and led the non-ferrous metals in a short period of time; but in early January, due to the open market The central bank's yield is raised, and China's continuous increase in the deposit reserve ratio. Due to concerns about the Chinese government's early recovery of liquidity, the non-ferrous metals market has made technical adjustments to the unilateral rise since 2009; but in the following market Including aluminum and other colored varieties, as well as internal and external aluminum, there is a trend of differentiation, which is also a manifestation of return to supply and demand; and then, the outbreak of European sovereign debt problems, the US quantitative easing stimulus policy, China's energy-saving emission reduction Policy regulation and the introduction of non-ferrous metal financial derivatives have a certain impact on aluminum prices, but overall, the current supply and demand relationship in the aluminum market has played a decisive role, external factors through the balance of supply and demand to affect aluminum prices.
Second, the 2011 aluminum market outlook
Aluminum market characteristics
Different from copper, China has an endowed advantage in aluminum resources. Taking the data of the first three quarters of 2010 as an example, China's alumina production accounts for 49.6% of the world's total output, while electrolytic aluminum production accounts for as much as 67%! However, the high energy consumption characteristics of the aluminum industry have caused the Chinese government to restrict exports by 15% export tariffs. Therefore, there is a large room for fluctuation between the aluminum import and export arbitrage windows. Therefore, before the breakeven point is reached, the Chinese aluminum market is somewhat independent of foreign.
Outlook outlook
As far as Shanghai aluminum is concerned, although the country has restricted or even eliminated high-energy, high-pollution and excess capacity such as electrolytic aluminum since the beginning of the 11th Five-Year Plan, due to local interest-driven and competitive pressures in the industry, companies have increased their fixed asset investment to meet the country. Technical standards have instead objectively increased domestic production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the control measures in the first half of the year actually eliminated backward production capacity of less than 600,000 tons/year, while the main aluminum plant's new capacity plan for the same period reached 3.7 million tons/year! Of course, with the low price of aluminum, and the rising cost of raw materials such as electricity prices and anode carbon blocks, some capacity plans have been postponed. By the end of the year, about 1.9 million tons have been realized, and the total domestic production capacity is 21 million tons/year. The new capacity is planned to be more than 3.6 million tons, especially in the northwestern regions of Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai, and the expansion plan is huge! In addition, next year's domestic alumina expansion plan is more than 5.4 million tons, which can basically meet domestic demand, but a slight deficiency still needs to be imported to supplement. Therefore, the situation of oversupply of domestic aluminum will remain in the future.
Based on this, the future price trend of Shanghai Aluminum will be based on a narrow range of reasonable profit margins above the cost, unless the systemic risks such as subprime mortgages and European sovereign bonds will form a strong support for the aluminum smelting cost line. However, in the cost of aluminum smelting, electricity prices, carbon blocks and alumina will gradually increase with inflation and LME aluminum prices (through the influence of imported alumina). Therefore, the upward shift of the cost stage is the normal state in the future. Shanghai Aluminum will show that the increase in the price of copper and zinc will return to the reasonable profit margin.
From the perspective of LME aluminum, what is worth paying attention to now is the financial derivatives that may be launched next year, and the “like copper-like market†that may be triggered by this. According to the information currently available, ETFSECURITIES has launched copper, tin and nickel corresponding financial derivatives, and in the first quarter of 2011 will continue to introduce aluminum, lead and zinc corresponding products, which directly correspond to LME registered warehouse receipts, in addition to JP Morgan Similar products will be introduced with Blackstone, because the financial derivatives directly correspond to the physical objects, which is equivalent to “locking†a considerable amount of stock, and cannot enter the actual consumption field, resulting in imbalance between supply and demand. This may also be the current LME spot aluminum. The inherent reason for the price is firm.
In addition, it is very obvious at present that the LME aluminum spot has been reduced from the March futures discount, which has been rapidly reduced from about US$30 in August to about US$10. Correspondingly, the balance of supply and demand in China's aluminum spot market has been greatly improved. -- In the first 10 months of 2010, the world's aluminum supply surplus was 318,000 tons, which was significantly lower than the 1.4 million tons in the same period of 2009. This was accompanied by the reduction of the spread and the reduction of the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Personal qualitative judgment, there is a big trade here. The possibility of doing business. Due to the favorable industrial data in Europe and the United States, the recovery of aluminum demand has been confirmed, but most LME aluminum registered warehouse receipts have been locked in financing, so that the actual supply of the spot market is limited in the short term. At this time, the operation mode of the traders' centralized storage is LME spot aluminum price. Hold on to promote forward contracts, this can refer to the historical trend of LME aluminum price difference and aluminum price change from June to August 2010.
Of course, this has market-making factors, but LME aluminum will still be much smaller than copper, which will show a follow-up trend of copper, mainly due to excess capacity pressure and huge supply potential of raw materials such as bauxite. The price increase, new capacity and previously closed capacity will resume, so the aluminum price in the market will remain in a relatively reasonable price range.
In summary, the financial attributes of the inner and outer aluminum are gradually attenuating, and gradually return to the supply and demand itself. Before hitting the import and export arbitrage window, Shanghai Aluminum and LME aluminum have a certain differentiation, which is characterized by weak internal strength and strong external strength. However, due to the domestic demand for some alumina to be satisfied by imports, coupled with the rising cost of other raw materials, the Shanghai Aluminum Cost Line will Gradually moving up, the price will eventually appear to be based on a narrow range of reasonable profit margins above the cost line, while LME aluminum, due to financial derivatives and trade market makers, will start a wave of gains in the near future, but from 2011 Looking at the whole year of the year, we will still go through the process of finding the bottom and determining the new wave box. This process can refer to the rhythm of LME copper to a certain extent.
Throughout 2010, the price trend of non-ferrous metals including aluminum is not a systematic decline caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, nor is it a significant financial stimulus triggered by unprecedented quantitative stimulus policies in major economies such as China and the United States in 2009. Investment attributes. In 2010, the market was more characterized by a gradual decline in financial attributes and a gradual return to the “transition period†of supply and demand fundamentals.
From the specific performance point of view, from the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2010, with the speculation of electricity supply in some aluminum plants in Europe, both internal and external aluminum have seen up the market, and led the non-ferrous metals in a short period of time; but in early January, due to the open market The central bank's yield is raised, and China's continuous increase in the deposit reserve ratio. Due to concerns about the Chinese government's early recovery of liquidity, the non-ferrous metals market has made technical adjustments to the unilateral rise since 2009; but in the following market Including aluminum and other colored varieties, as well as internal and external aluminum, there is a trend of differentiation, which is also a manifestation of return to supply and demand; and then, the outbreak of European sovereign debt problems, the US quantitative easing stimulus policy, China's energy-saving emission reduction Policy regulation and the introduction of non-ferrous metal financial derivatives have a certain impact on aluminum prices, but overall, the current supply and demand relationship in the aluminum market has played a decisive role, external factors through the balance of supply and demand to affect aluminum prices.
Second, the 2011 aluminum market outlook
Aluminum market characteristics
Different from copper, China has an endowed advantage in aluminum resources. Taking the data of the first three quarters of 2010 as an example, China's alumina production accounts for 49.6% of the world's total output, while electrolytic aluminum production accounts for as much as 67%! However, the high energy consumption characteristics of the aluminum industry have caused the Chinese government to restrict exports by 15% export tariffs. Therefore, there is a large room for fluctuation between the aluminum import and export arbitrage windows. Therefore, before the breakeven point is reached, the Chinese aluminum market is somewhat independent of foreign.
Outlook outlook
As far as Shanghai aluminum is concerned, although the country has restricted or even eliminated high-energy, high-pollution and excess capacity such as electrolytic aluminum since the beginning of the 11th Five-Year Plan, due to local interest-driven and competitive pressures in the industry, companies have increased their fixed asset investment to meet the country. Technical standards have instead objectively increased domestic production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the control measures in the first half of the year actually eliminated backward production capacity of less than 600,000 tons/year, while the main aluminum plant's new capacity plan for the same period reached 3.7 million tons/year! Of course, with the low price of aluminum, and the rising cost of raw materials such as electricity prices and anode carbon blocks, some capacity plans have been postponed. By the end of the year, about 1.9 million tons have been realized, and the total domestic production capacity is 21 million tons/year. The new capacity is planned to be more than 3.6 million tons, especially in the northwestern regions of Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai, and the expansion plan is huge! In addition, next year's domestic alumina expansion plan is more than 5.4 million tons, which can basically meet domestic demand, but a slight deficiency still needs to be imported to supplement. Therefore, the situation of oversupply of domestic aluminum will remain in the future.
Based on this, the future price trend of Shanghai Aluminum will be based on a narrow range of reasonable profit margins above the cost, unless the systemic risks such as subprime mortgages and European sovereign bonds will form a strong support for the aluminum smelting cost line. However, in the cost of aluminum smelting, electricity prices, carbon blocks and alumina will gradually increase with inflation and LME aluminum prices (through the influence of imported alumina). Therefore, the upward shift of the cost stage is the normal state in the future. Shanghai Aluminum will show that the increase in the price of copper and zinc will return to the reasonable profit margin.
From the perspective of LME aluminum, what is worth paying attention to now is the financial derivatives that may be launched next year, and the “like copper-like market†that may be triggered by this. According to the information currently available, ETFSECURITIES has launched copper, tin and nickel corresponding financial derivatives, and in the first quarter of 2011 will continue to introduce aluminum, lead and zinc corresponding products, which directly correspond to LME registered warehouse receipts, in addition to JP Morgan Similar products will be introduced with Blackstone, because the financial derivatives directly correspond to the physical objects, which is equivalent to “locking†a considerable amount of stock, and cannot enter the actual consumption field, resulting in imbalance between supply and demand. This may also be the current LME spot aluminum. The inherent reason for the price is firm.
In addition, it is very obvious at present that the LME aluminum spot has been reduced from the March futures discount, which has been rapidly reduced from about US$30 in August to about US$10. Correspondingly, the balance of supply and demand in China's aluminum spot market has been greatly improved. -- In the first 10 months of 2010, the world's aluminum supply surplus was 318,000 tons, which was significantly lower than the 1.4 million tons in the same period of 2009. This was accompanied by the reduction of the spread and the reduction of the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Personal qualitative judgment, there is a big trade here. The possibility of doing business. Due to the favorable industrial data in Europe and the United States, the recovery of aluminum demand has been confirmed, but most LME aluminum registered warehouse receipts have been locked in financing, so that the actual supply of the spot market is limited in the short term. At this time, the operation mode of the traders' centralized storage is LME spot aluminum price. Hold on to promote forward contracts, this can refer to the historical trend of LME aluminum price difference and aluminum price change from June to August 2010.
Of course, this has market-making factors, but LME aluminum will still be much smaller than copper, which will show a follow-up trend of copper, mainly due to excess capacity pressure and huge supply potential of raw materials such as bauxite. The price increase, new capacity and previously closed capacity will resume, so the aluminum price in the market will remain in a relatively reasonable price range.
In summary, the financial attributes of the inner and outer aluminum are gradually attenuating, and gradually return to the supply and demand itself. Before hitting the import and export arbitrage window, Shanghai Aluminum and LME aluminum have a certain differentiation, which is characterized by weak internal strength and strong external strength. However, due to the domestic demand for some alumina to be satisfied by imports, coupled with the rising cost of other raw materials, the Shanghai Aluminum Cost Line will Gradually moving up, the price will eventually appear to be based on a narrow range of reasonable profit margins above the cost line, while LME aluminum, due to financial derivatives and trade market makers, will start a wave of gains in the near future, but from 2011 Looking at the whole year of the year, we will still go through the process of finding the bottom and determining the new wave box. This process can refer to the rhythm of LME copper to a certain extent.
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