Distribution network and distribution automation are the weakest links in China's power grid construction. There is a big gap between the reliability of power supply and the advanced level in developed countries. The country has increased the construction of smart distribution networks to a strategic height. At the State Council Standing Conference held in July this year, "Strengthening the construction of urban distribution networks and promoting the intelligentization of the power grid" was identified as one of the six key tasks for urban infrastructure construction; and the State Grid has established a special working group for this purpose. The application of automation and construction upgrades as a "past emergency" is a sign that the State Grid Corporation has blown up the construction horn of the distribution automation system.
2013 will be a crucial year for the development of distribution automation. The formulation of a series of development plans and standards is expected to be completed from late 2013 to early 2014, paving the way for the rapid development of distribution automation in the overall construction. From 2014 to 2015, the key areas for the distribution automation will be 31 core cities in the area of ​​the State Grid. From 2016 to 2020, the investment will gradually shift from core cities to general cities and developed counties.
Distribution automation will usher in a billion-dollar investment feast. We estimate that the distribution automation investment will usher in explosive growth in 2014-2016, reaching 150/300/400 billion yuan respectively, and the compound growth rate will reach 100%; then it will enter into the stable construction stage, and the total investment scale will exceed 1500 by 2020. 100 million yuan. Beijing and Shanghai will become the top priority for investment, and the scale is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan.
The mainstream manufacturers are delighted, and two or three teams eat meat and soup. We believe that the mainstream vendors (Xuji Electric, Guodian NARI), which can provide complete solutions, will take the lead in this feast and gain far-reaching market share and huge orders; the second-tier company (JiCheng Electronics, Beijing Branch) (Rui, Sifang, Dongfang Electronics) are not far behind, and can still share investment investment opportunities through fierce market competition; and other equipment companies (third tier) that can partially participate in the construction of distribution automation will also be driven by huge investment. Get some benefit. Based on the proportion of the company's revenue/net contribution and the elasticity of its growth in the distribution business, Xu Ji, NARI, Jicheng and Career benefit the most.
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