Abstract China's Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday that the severity and complexity of China's foreign trade situation have not changed fundamentally. There are more uncertainties and uncertainties, and challenges and pressures are still increasing. Foreign trade may maintain moderate and low-speed growth. China's Foreign Trade Situation Report published by the Ministry of Commerce website (Spring 2015)...
China's Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday that the severity and complexity of China's foreign trade situation has not changed fundamentally. There are more uncertainties and uncertainties, and challenges and pressures are still increasing. Foreign trade may maintain moderate and low-speed growth. The China Foreign Trade Situation Report released by the Ministry of Commerce website (Spring 2015) also pointed out that China's foreign trade still has a series of favorable factors and conditions, and the industrial foundation for export is solid. At the same time, the state's policy of supporting foreign trade development is constantly increasing. Exports are expected to achieve relatively stable growth.
"In the coming period, China's foreign trade development faces many challenges such as weak external demand, weakened traditional competitiveness, and increased external restrictions. In addition, the international market share has been at a higher level, and it is more difficult to further increase its share. China's foreign trade may remain The medium and low-speed growth.†The report also pointed out that foreign trade will be more susceptible to short-term factors such as changes in market demand and exchange rate fluctuations, and fluctuations will become more frequent and larger.
In the context of the rapid growth of the world economy, the consumption and investment demand of various countries are generally weak, the growth momentum of international trade is insufficient, and external demand is still not stable. At the same time, China's export industry competitiveness is also facing challenges in both high-end and low-end, and the international competition is refurbished.
"China's high-end export industry has encountered greater competitive pressure from developed countries. The low-end and mid-end export industries are facing the recovery of neighboring emerging economies. Some of the investment enterprises in China are returning to developed countries and diverting to neighboring emerging economies. The competitive advantage has been weakened. "The report said.
The report also quoted data indicating that since 2012, the growth rate of global trade volume has been lower than the growth rate of the world economy for three consecutive years. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade volume will increase by 4% in 2015, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than that in 2014, but it is still significantly lower than the average growth rate of 5.1% since 1990, and this forecast is still facing the possibility of downward adjustment.
In the first two months of 2015, the exports of the 70 major economies monitored by the WTO fell by 9.1% year-on-year, the first decline since 2009.
"In the economic downturn, some countries use the exchange rate as an important tool to boost exports and stimulate the economy, pushing the depreciation of the local currency, resulting in a passive appreciation of the renminbi, seriously affecting the competitiveness of Chinese exports in the international market." It is mentioned that in 2014, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB appreciated by 6.4%, and in the first quarter of 2015, it rose by 4.2%.
According to previous data from the customs, China’s export growth rate in March fell to a 13-month low and was far worse than expected, and the trade surplus plummeted from a record high. In the first quarter, the total value of foreign trade fell by double digits year-on-year. In March, the foreign trade export leading index turned around and turned down, indicating that the foreign trade situation in the second quarter and even the whole year is still difficult.
However, the report also mentioned some positive factors that China's foreign trade may face. China's export industry has a solid industrial foundation, and its export industry chain and infrastructure are relatively complete. In the future, capital goods and intermediate goods exports are expected to usher in a prosperous period.
In addition, China's foreign investment cooperation has entered a period of rapid development, which is expected to drive exports of large-scale complete sets of equipment, parts and components, and engineering materials. Coupled with the acceleration of the pace of enterprise transformation and upgrading, especially the new trade methods such as cross-border e-commerce have lowered the threshold for SME exports and are expected to become an important growth point for exports.
"The Chinese government adheres to the development of foreign trade, continuously improves the level of trade facilitation, actively fosters new advantages in foreign trade competition, improves financial and financial services, and helps enterprises explore the international market through the establishment of free trade zones, which will effectively promote foreign trade development." According to the report, on the whole, China's import and export is expected to achieve relatively stable growth in 2015 due to no major changes in the external environment.
The report also believes that the world economy will continue its moderate recovery in 2015, with more uncertainties and uncertainties, and international competition is more intense. China's economic development is stable, structural adjustment is steadily advancing, and new-born power is accelerating, but it is still facing downward pressure.
"From the domestic perspective, the long-term fundamentals of China's economy have not changed, but the current downward pressure continues to increase, and difficulties and challenges have increased." The report said that the contradiction of industrial overcapacity is prominent, and the problem of financing difficult financing for enterprises is intensifying. The market adjustment has deepened, and the downward pressure on the economy has been increased. The growth rate of fiscal revenue has fallen sharply, and the bank's bad debt rate has continued to rise, increasing financial and financial risks.
The overall decline in industry, investment, and foreign trade sentiment to China's GDP in the first quarter hit a six-year low, and the year-on-year growth rate barely fell on the growth target set at the beginning of 7%. Although the data is basically in line with market expectations, the reality of the downward pressure on China's economic growth has made it very uncertain whether it can hold 7% in the second quarter.
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