The first quarter economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's economy is currently facing two major risks: First, the risk of economic growth slowing down, GDP in the first quarter increased by 9.7% year-on-year, down 0.1% from the fourth quarter of last year; exports, consumption The growth rate of investment showed a downward trend year-on-year. Among them, exports increased by 26.5% year-on-year, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the trade deficit in the first quarter was US$1 billion. The contribution of external demand to economic growth decreased. Excluding the price factor, the growth rate of investment and consumption decreased by 5.88 and 4.6 percentage points respectively. At the same time, GDP growth in the first quarter of the country also generally slowed down. Second, the risk of continued inflation is rising. The CPI in the first quarter rose by 5.0% year-on-year, higher than last year's 4.6%. In March, CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations. In the short run, macroeconomics seems to have some characteristics and harbingers of “stagflationâ€. There are more and more disputes in the market about whether China’s economy has stagflation risks and whether austerity policies continue to be implemented. The author believes that whether it is from the historical experience of the past, or from the current international economic environment and the endogenous driving force of domestic economic growth, the possibility of China's economy falling into "stagflation" in the short term is very small, and the economic growth rate is more economic structure. Due to the transformation and the government's active adjustment, there is no need to worry about the risk of sustained economic growth, but more attention should be paid to the risk of rising inflation. First of all, due to the rapid growth of China's economy for many years and its uniqueness on a global scale, it is necessary to define the Chinese-style “stagflationâ€. Traditional economics has a narrow and broad definition of stagflation. The narrow stagflation means that the economic growth rate is very low, such as 1% - 2%, and inflation is relatively high. The typical feature of this stagflation is that the economy has experienced at least four consecutive quarters of negative growth or a sharp decline in the chain, with inflation showing double-digit growth over the same period. The generalized stagflation generally refers to the situation in which the economy begins to fall and inflation goes up. It is a trend. For China's emerging market in the growth period, the equilibrium growth rate in the past 10 years is 9.7%, the average inflation rate is 2.2%, and the economic growth rate is much higher than the inflation rate, which cannot be compared with the narrow stagflation. There is no real stagflation in our country. Secondly, from the analysis of the current international and domestic economic environment, there is no basis for “stagnation†in China's economic growth. In view of the increasing integration of the global economy, one of the prerequisites for the continued decline of China's economic growth rate is the deterioration of the international economic environment. Judging from the current international situation, the global economy has shaken off the shadow of the financial crisis and entered a stage of comprehensive recovery and expansion. Therefore, the peripheral environment of China's economy can be said to have not undergone fundamental changes. From the domestic situation, the economic growth rate is the result of economic restructuring and the government's initiative adjustment, and the market is willing to accept. In particular, as for the driving force of economic growth, the “troikaâ€, although it was slightly slowed down due to policy factors, the decline was not large. We must also see that the current trend of China's consumption upgrade will not change, and the government has clearly proposed that the “12th Five-Year Plan†will stimulate consumption by raising the disposable income of residents and reducing the family tax burden. This expectation will support residents. Consumption has maintained rapid growth. Therefore, the short-term growth rate of consumption will not change the trend of long-term stable growth. As for external demand, due to the possibility of further rise in global commodity prices and the negative impact that the appreciation of the renminbi may have on China’s exports, China’s trade conditions may deteriorate further this year, and the probability of export growth is lower than that of import growth. The narrowing of the trade surplus will continue. However, this phenomenon has certain advantages in reducing foreign exchange reserves, reducing market liquidity, and curbing inflation, which in turn will stimulate consumption. Therefore, even if there is a deficit in foreign trade, it is not terrible. However, we must also pay attention to the correct handling of the relationship with the growth of insurance when implementing anti-inflation policies, to avoid excessive, excessive and intensive monetary tightening policies. Effective arrangements can be made in regulating policies, both to effectively curb inflation and promote economic growth, and to be vigilant against possible economic stagflation.
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